Strategic Experts Predicted Russia’s Collapse but Fell into Wishful Thinking

Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking 167 global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years.

Interestingly, 40 percent of respondents expected Russia to break up internally by 2033 due to revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason. Europeans were particularly pessimistic about Russia’s future: forty-nine percent of them foresee such an event, compared with 36 percent of Americans.

As a Finn, I naturally hope that the experts who participated in the survey are correct. Unfortunately, I cannot agree with them but view the survey results as wishful thinking rather than serious conclusions drawn from expertise.

My reasoning is that Russia did not collapse during the 1917 revolution or after its preceding defeat in the First World War. It also withstood the German offensive during the Second World War and the fall of communism in 1991.

Nor did Russia break apart during the famine of 1693 and the subsequent Time of Troubles, during which a Finnish army led by the Swedish Jacob de la Gardie captured Moscow in 1610. Nor when Napoleon did the same in 1812.

I do consider it possible, even inevitable, that Vladimir Putin’s reign will end within the next ten years, but the country will still be ruled by an undemocratic leader—be they called a czar, the chairperson of the Politburo, or a president. However, I do not believe that life for the average Russian will improve under a new leader.

I also do not believe that Russia will become a friendly state toward its neighbors or that its future rulers will abandon their imperialist policies.

For this reason, the rest of the world—and especially border states like Finland, Estonia, Poland, Ukraine, and others—must ensure the humane, economic, and military strength of their societies. In other words, citizens must see their homeland as worth defending and possess the necessary resources and military capabilities to do so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Message from Finland's President to Vladimir Putin
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia

Finnish, Japanese, and Dutch Adults Lead in Literacy, Numeracy, and Problem-Solving Skills

The OECD has published a new Survey of Adult Skills, examining proficiency in literacy, numeracy, and adaptive problem-solving across different countries. According to the report, Finnish, Japanese, and Dutch adults outperformed their peers in other nations.

At the top of the rankings were Finns, who excelled in all three categories. However, in adaptive problem-solving, they shared the leading position with the Japanese.

On average, across OECD countries, 18% of adults lack even the most basic level of proficiency in any of the measured domains. In contrast, only 7% of Japanese adults fell into this category.

Interestingly, first-generation immigrants in Finland performed significantly worse than ethnic Finns, with the largest gap in reading proficiency among all the countries surveyed.

This finding may have implications for immigration policy, particularly in decisions regarding work-based immigrants or quota refugees. Unfortunately, the OECD report did not provide details about the immigrants’ countries of origin.

Nevertheless, this data should be obtained to inform policymakers, as questions surrounding immigration policy are highly relevant at present. Some green-left opposition politicians advocate for accepting immigrants from all countries without consideration of ethnic or religious backgrounds. Recently, they urged the government to reject measures that assess immigrants' potential performance in Finnish working life and society.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Immigration Policy Should Be Based on Evidence
10% of Foreign Students in Finland Failed to Meet Residence Requirements
Humanitarian immigration does not provide a solution to Finland's demographic dependency ratio