Now It's Putin's Turn to Show His Hand

Ukraine accepted Donald Trump's ceasefire proposal and regained U.S. support in its fight against Russia. At the same time, Trump's attention shifts to Russia, where President Vladimir Putin may be facing a similar predicament to what Volodymyr Zelenskyy experienced earlier.

According to Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, Russia's leadership will not take a stance on the proposal until they have been in direct contact with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. The Kremlin is waiting for them to provide details of the agreement.

The Kremlin also stated that a phone call between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is possible. According to Peskov, this call could be arranged very quickly.

According to Finnish analyst Arkady Moshes, it is more unlikely than likely that Russia will accept the ceasefire proposal. This is because if the front line is frozen now, part of Russia will remain under Ukrainian control, which Putin would not accept, as Kursk would become a daily topic of discussion.

On the other hand, the Russian army has recently performed well in Kursk, so for Ukraine, it is crucial at this moment to stabilize the front line. If successful, Putin would not— to borrow Trump's phrasing— be left holding a hand of empty cards.

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The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin

Germany, led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, plans to halve its support for Ukraine in order to get its debt under control. In doing so, it will also end up supporting Vladimir Putin's dictatorially ruled Russia.

This is happening at a time when Ukraine has just demonstrated its ability to surprise the Russian army after receiving a large aid package from the United States. In other words, it has shown that with the support of Western countries, it can change the course of the war.

Arkady Moshes of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs mentioned that "it is visible that Ukraine's Western allies are steering Ukraine towards a ceasefire or peace," because "some Westerners are no longer worried that Ukraine's collapse would lead them into a risky situation."

This statement immediately brought to my mind British Foreign Minister Neville Chamberlain's 1938 declaration of "peace for our time," after he and his Western colleagues had forced Czechoslovakia to cede part of its territory to Adolf Hitler's Germany. "Our time" lasted less than a year back then.

Of course, Scholz is just a Social Democrat, and perhaps for that reason, we cannot expect much understanding from him. Or at least, his Finnish ideological counterpart Timo Harakka does not possess such understanding, as journalist Ulla Appelsin just reminded us.

The fact remains, however, that if Western countries allow Russia to benefit from its attack on Ukraine, not only will Putin take note of it, but so will many other rulers of undemocratic states. The most notable of these is China, which has an obsession with incorporating Taiwan, but also has ambitions in the vicinity of the Himalayan mountains.

By saying all this, I do not mean that the end of the war in Ukraine is not a good and important goal. Rather, I remind you that peace at any cost is not reasonable.

And European politicians should therefore avoid making Chamberlain-like mistakes and ensure that the democratic world does not allow the use of military force to redraw national borders—not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, and not at the borders of Finland or the Baltic States.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A gift from the free world to Ukraine