AI and E. coli, side by side — what a ride!

The Finnish media Helsingin Sanomat (HS) reported this morning that artificial intelligence, or language models, reflect the values of their developers. The article was based on the same questions that HS has asked candidates from different political parties in connection with elections. This made it possible to compare the language models with the parties and their values.

Most language models lean toward value liberalism and the left – among Finnish political parties, the closest equivalents are mainly the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Greens, and the Swedish People’s Party (RKP). The Finns Party (Perussuomalaiset), by contrast, is the furthest away.

When reading this news story, it is worth remembering that people probably do not ask language models very much about values, but rather about various facts. As far as those are concerned, current language models are, at least in my own experience, quite reliable.

* * *

Yesterday, I also happened to read a scientific paper about a completely new kind of AI-based approach in which Paul Ahavi and his colleagues used E. coli bacteria as a living information processor by analyzing their natural growth responses in plasma samples from COVID-19 patients. This was done without genetic modification or specialized equipment.

In practice, the researchers classified early-stage plasma samples from COVID-19 patients according to how severe the disease subsequently became. The classification was based solely on bacterial growth data and was analyzed using machine learning, or artificial intelligence.

The study showed that AI could analyze the effects of metabolites in patients’ plasma on the growth of E. coli and link those effects to the subsequent progression of the disease. In other words, by analyzing bacterial growth, it was able to distinguish a disease that would develop into a mild case from one that would become severe – essentially determining who would recover from the infection on their own and who would require treatment.

Based on their results the researchers concluded that “these findings position biological reservoir computing as a robust, scalable, and low-cost platform for intelligent biosensing, diagnostics, and hybrid bio-digital computation, while providing new mechanistic insights into the computational capabilities of living systems.”

The ability of the combination of E. coli and AI to predict the progression of COVID-19 was roughly as accurate as what can be achieved with precise – and extremely expensive – biochemical measurements. This means that the combination would seemingly offer a vastly cheaper way of analyzing large numbers of patients in connection with a wide variety of epidemics – and potentially even in developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Rain Scald: The Future of a New Sexually Transmitted Disease
Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

Rain Scald: The Future of a New Sexually Transmitted Disease

The Finnish public broadcaster Yle has reported that a new sexually transmitted infection has begun spreading in Europe. In fact, the disease is one that has long been known to affect horses and cattle: rain scald (also known as dermatophilosis). Previously, it had occurred mainly in people who worked closely with these animals, but it has now started to spread to others as well.

The disease is caused by bacteria and produces scaly skin lesions, raised bumps, and pus-filled blisters on various parts of the body. So far, however, it has responded well to antibiotic treatment, and the situation remains under control.

The infection has not been spreading among people engaging in conventional sexual activity. Rather, according to Yle's report, it "is currently found mainly among men who have visited gay saunas in France, Spain, Germany, and Sweden. Transmission has occurred through sexual contact or other forms of close skin-to-skin contact."

* * *

It remains to be seen whether this emerging disease will develop into a genuine epidemic or remain a passing curiosity. In this regard, bisexual men are likely to play a key role, as they could enable the bacterium to cross the gender barrier from gay men to heterosexual women.

If rain scald does begin to spread more widely, another important question will be whether the pathogen starts adapting to humans. In other words, will genetic changes be selected in bacterial strains that circulate between people, making transmission during sexual contact more efficient than it is today?

Should that happen, the next likely development would be the evolution of antibiotic resistance. As a result, treating the disease would become more difficult than it is at present.

For now, we can only wait and see what the future brings. At present, the only certainty is that abstaining from sex, or having sex exclusively with one faithful partner—and, apparently, also using a physical barrier such as a condom—prevents infection.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland's COVID-19 policy saved approximately 2,600 people from death
A factory of five billion mosquitoes
Evolution in action

Why Did the Cause of Pierce’s Disease in Grapevines Spread to Europe Only in 2013?

Greenhouse gases have, according to measurements, increased the Earth's average temperature by nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius per year. As a result of this change, harmful pathogens may spread to regions where they have not previously been found. This applies to both alien invasive species and so-called newcomer species, which are spreading to new areas without human intervention.

Eduardo Moralejo and his colleagues have published a study examining the phylogenetics, epidemiology, and history of Xylella fastidiosa, a North American bacterium spread by insect vectors that causes Pierce’s disease in grapevine. Their research provided insight into why European vineyards have, until now, avoided this pathogen.

Before this study, it was a mystery why the export of American grapevines to France in the late 19th century to combat phylloxera did not lead to the spread of X. fastidiosa at that time. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the most recent common ancestors of the bacterial populations lived around 1875. This timing aligns with the first epidemic caused by the bacterium in the U.S. and its subsequent spread to the southeastern United States.

Moralejo and his team also showed that continental Europe's climatic conditions were too cool from the 19th century until the early 1990s for Pierce’s disease to develop into an epidemic. Consequently, the pathogen could not establish itself or spread from the plants imported into Europe at that time, even if they had been infected.

However, the situation has changed due to global warming. As a result, the risk of epidemics has been increasing for over three decades. It remains to be seen when this bacterium will be found beyond the limited areas of Europe’s southernmost regions, where it was first detected in 2013.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Misleading Claims About European Forests
The amazing adventures of the German cockroach
A factory of five billion mosquitoes

Finland's COVID-19 policy saved approximately 2,600 people from death

The coronavirus pandemic is far behind us, and the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused it has become just a part of everyday life. Therefore, it is a good time to look back a bit and examine the statistics related to the pandemic.

Among these, death cases are naturally the most reliable, so I will focus on that in this review. On a global level, the pandemic has been reported to have caused slightly over seven million premature deaths.

Is this then a lot or a little? This can be determined by comparing the number of deaths to previous pandemics.

The Spanish flu, caused by the influenza virus, is estimated to have killed 17-100 million people worldwide just over a hundred years ago. This is already a significantly higher number – and considering the increase in the world's population over the past hundred years – it is an astonishingly worse pandemic.

An even harsher ordeal was the bacterial disease known as the Black Death that raged during the Middle Ages. According to Wikipedia, it is "estimated to have killed 30-60 percent of Europe's population, i.e., 25-50 million people, and an equal number in the Middle East and North Africa."

The essential difference between COVID-19 and the aforementioned diseases lies in the advancement of medicine, which enabled the identification of people infected with the coronavirus – and their isolation from spreading it to others – as well as the development of vaccines and treatments that effectively reduced mortality. Therefore, it is clear that if the virus had spread to people a hundred years ago, the impact would have been significantly more devastating than what we have experienced now.

* * *

One interesting topic of discussion has been the difference between Finland's strict and Sweden's more lenient COVID-19 policies. This can be examined by comparing the number of deaths caused by the virus in both countries.

Statistics show that a total of 27,407 people have died from the virus in Sweden. In Finland, the corresponding number is 11,958. The relationship between these numbers can be compared to the population ratios of the two countries. It is seen that about 2.1 per mille of the population died in Finland, and 2.6 per mille in Sweden.

Thus, it can be said that Finland's stricter COVID-19 policy, compared to Sweden, saved approximately 0.5 per mille – or roughly 2,600 lives – from death caused by the coronavirus. Therefore, the difference is not very large, and I do not take a position here on whether it is sufficient to compensate for the negative effects of the policy implemented.

Instead, I state that humanity should continue to prepare for the emergence of zoonotic diseases. Their occurrence cannot be predicted precisely, but it is certain that a new pandemic will occur sooner or later. And therefore, perhaps the most important lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic is that with good prior planning and preparedness, Finns can be spared the confusion witnessed during the coronavirus pandemic.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is the world´s best skier in classical technique, Iivo Niskanen, going to recover from COVID-19
Share of EU recovery funds will turn attitudes more negative
World oceans are filled with previously unknown viruses