Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health

According to a recent Finnish study, adolescents referred for care due to gender identity exhibited significantly higher psychiatric morbidity than controls both before referral (45.7% vs. 15.0%) and at least two years after referral (61.7% vs. 14.6%). In addition, those referred after 2010 had greater psychiatric care needs than earlier cohorts both before referral (47.9% vs. 15.3%) and at least two years after referral (61.3% vs. 14.2%).

Among adolescents who underwent medical gender reassignment, psychiatric morbidity increased markedly during follow-up—rising from 9.8% to 60.7% in feminizing gender reassignment and from 21.6% to 54.5% in masculinizing gender reassignment. After adjusting for prior psychiatric treatment, all adolescents referred for gender identity-related care had similarly elevated risks of psychiatric morbidity, with hazard ratios approximately three times higher than female controls and five times higher than male controls.

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Based on the study, the authors—Sami-Matti Ruuska and his colleagues—concluded that adolescents referred for gender identity-related care exhibit a high level of psychiatric morbidity. In addition, gender differences and mental health trajectories after medical gender reassignment remain poorly understood.

A particularly notable observation was that adolescents referred for gender identity-related care had clearly higher psychiatric morbidity than controls, and this did not change as a result of treatment. On the contrary, the need persisted and often even intensified after medical interventions, some of which appeared to have even negative effects.

The researchers therefore emphasized the need for thorough psychiatric assessment and continuous treatment throughout the process of medical gender reassignment. However, they did not go so far as to state that the entire process is—at least generally—unnecessary or, at worst, even harmful.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing
Javier Milei and the Great Western Opportunity
A Fair Game or Unfair Judgment?

To Be or Not to Be Woke – A Question of Worldview and Mental Health

In Finland’s largest daily newspaper there was an article that discussed right-wing and left-wing “wokeness.” According to the interviewed specialist researcher from the University of Turku, Oskari Lehtinen, right-wing woke activists (which, to be honest, I had never heard of before) were united by the views that their country’s population is being deliberately replaced, society discriminates against white people, a good ruler breaks rules in order to safeguard national interests, conservative values should determine which forms of expression are permitted and which are forbidden, and ordinary people know better what is good for the country than educated experts.

Left-wing woke activists, in turn, were united by views according to which income differences between white and non-white people are explained mainly by racism, trans women should be allowed to compete in women’s sports categories, society should have more safe spaces, racism is more of a structural phenomenon than something visible in individuals’ actions, and focusing on skin color is generally necessary for advancing human rights.

The newspaper article included a link to a test from a few years ago that allowed you to measure your own level of wokeness. As a curious person, I took it, and my result was 3/30 points along with the comment that “you are not very woke.” This did not surprise me.

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In connection with that test, some interesting things were reported. One of them—though less surprising—was that among university students, the strongest woke attitudes were found in the humanities and social sciences as well as psychology. Among students, wokeness was least common among those studying the natural sciences, while among teachers the least enamored with this ideology were business scholars.

It was also not a surprise to me personally that people who hold a woke worldview are more depressed and anxious than others. In addition, they are less happy than others. According to the woke researcher, however, this is a correlation rather than a cause-and-effect relationship, so we do not know whether wokeness leads to mental health problems or vice versa.

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It would be great if Lehtinen’s future research were to produce information about the causal relationship between a woke worldview and mental health, as that would be quite useful. It is clear that if wokeness produces mental health problems such as depression and anxiety and, in addition, reduces people’s happiness, that would be a justified reason to stop presenting this ideology in a positive light in media.

If, on the other hand, further research were to show that the causal relationship runs the other way—that is, that wokeness is a way of identifying people suffering from mental health problems—then its supporters could be easily identified and directed to mental health services, and, if necessary, provided with psychiatric support that would help them live happier lives than they do now.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender identity and the future of Finnishness
Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts

The original blogpost in Finnish: 
Tieteellistä tietoa wokelluksesta

Multiple Stabbings Reported in Tampere, Finland

According to the police, several people have been stabbed near a shopping center located in the city of Tampere, Finland. The victims are receiving first aid, and one person has been taken into custody following the incident.

So far, no motive for the stabbing has been reported, but the police are investigating the matter in any case. It remains to be seen whether this was, for example, a clash between gangs or a terrorist act targeting bystanders. At this stage, even mental illness as a motive cannot be ruled out.

PS 17.45. The police have cordoned off the area and are currently questioning eyewitnesses.

PS 19:54. According to the police's current information, there is no reason to suspect that the act had a terrorist or racist motive. The stabbing has not resulted in any fatalities, but four people have been injured. The police have not released a description of the stabber.

PS 4.7. 8:07. The suspected perpetrator is an adult Finnish man. As a result of the act of violence, four people were injured. All the victims are adults. No fatalities occurred, and according to current information, none of the victims are in life-threatening condition.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point? 
Gun Violence in Brussels After Swedish Massacre
The stabbing of the 12-year-old led to political revelry among the left in Finland

Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

According to a recent survey, as many as 70 percent of Finnish schoolchildren suffer from mental health issues. A significant cause of this is the news coverage related to climate change and the environment, which has driven even the most gifted young people into deep anxiety.

For this reason, I once again decided to analyze the melting of Arctic sea ice, which has been claimed to result in ice-free waters by the 2030s. Based on the statistics, I created the following image using data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's dataset "All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily," which officially begins in 1987 (prior to this, the dataset only contains data for every second day).

From this dataset, I extracted the minimum extent of Arctic ice for each year and plotted the following image, which shows the annual minimum extent of Arctic ice, its five-year moving average, and a linear trendline generated by Excel, which I manually extended across the entire chart.

From the red five-year moving average, it can be seen that the ice melt can be divided into three phases. From the start of the dataset until the mid-1990s, it was slow, but then accelerated for over a decade, reaching its minimum in 2013. After that, the melting slowed down again.

The black regression curve drawn on the chart for the entire dataset, however, shows that if the trend were to continue as it has in the recorded data, the Arctic sea ice would likely not be ice-free even by 2050. Therefore, the melting predicted by climate scientists for the 2030s must be based on other factors.

To understand this, I drew another image, in which I manually fitted a straight line that follows only the rapid melting phase in the middle of the dataset, aligning with the red five-year moving average. This appears as a green line in the image below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this line corresponds to the scientific prediction of ice melt in the near future. Thus, it seems that the forecast in question—despite being mathematically and scientifically complex—is ultimately based on a development that would occur if the ice melt follows the trend from the late 1990s to 2013.

But what about the events in Arctic sea ice melting after 2013? To understand this, I performed a similar manual line fitting operation based on the post-2013 data. This is shown as a blue line in the diagram below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this "data fit" also indicates a downward trend, but a very gradual one. And if this trend prevails in the Arctic, no living person today will witness an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Not even their children.

Therefore, I would hope that media coverage of climate change, and especially the melting of Arctic sea ice, would be less sensationalist and instead highlight the factors that suggest extreme views are unlikely to materialize. These also indicate that the models predicting rapid climate change still involve vast uncertainties, suggesting that humanity most likely has ample time to adapt to the ever-changing environment.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January