Dark Brown Ancestors

Mammals can be colorful, but generally speaking, their brilliance is somewhat more subdued than that of birds. However, fur coloration affects their behavior, physiology, and habitat.

In a recent study conducted by an international research team, the coloration of ancient mammalian ancestors that lived 252–66 million years ago was investigated, as little is known about their coloration despite their coexistence with dinosaurs. The researchers analyzed the shape of pigment-containing organelles and compared them to the fur color of 116 modern mammals.

Through this analysis, they were able to reliably deduce the fur color of six ancient mammal-like creatures. It turned out that, unlike feathered dinosaurs, the melanosome structure of these ancient mammals was quite uniform and likely dark brown. This dark coloration probably helped them blend into their nocturnal environment, as they were primarily active at night.

The study suggests that the more diverse color palette of modern mammals only emerged after the mass extinction of dinosaurs, when mammals began to rapidly evolve and diversify. This is likely due to some mammals adapting to daytime activity, as they were no longer prey for predatory dinosaurs.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Mothers Naturally Embrace the Challenges of Newborn Care
Shower Taking and Interfering Elephants
The Historical Merging of Human Groups

The Green Movement is Withering – And That’s Not a Bad Thing

The Green movement has gained strength since the 1970s in many countries. At the same time, it has transformed from an environmental movement that defied the traditional left-right classification into a broadly left-wing radical movement.

In many countries, this development has led to a decline in support for Green parties. For example, in Finland, the party reached its peak popularity in August 2017, with as much as 17% of eligible voters backing it. Today, however, its support has dropped to just 8%.

This has resulted in the rise of less left-leaning figures within the party, who continue to advocate for environmental issues but are more cautious toward far-left ideologies. An example of this is when three Green politicians – including the party's relatively new chairperson – proposed investing in Finland's defense industry.

This immediately sparked a backlash, casting doubt on the party's future. The Green youth organization declared that the defense industry does not represent Green values or "jointly agreed" policies.

The chair of the youth organization further stated that "sustainable, just, feminist, and human rights-based foreign policy is the core of Green security policy. Therefore, we are deeply disappointed with the party leadership's statement and do not support it."

Since the future of established parties – such as the Finnish Greens – is always reflected in their youth organizations, it seems that the fate of Finland's environmental movement will be to wither away along with other far-left movements. This is not a bad outcome for ordinary Finns or even for the environment.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Are Finns pragmatic and practical people?
Finnish Society Adopts Medieval Characteristics
The Green Movement of Finland is Lost

Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

According to a recent survey, as many as 70 percent of Finnish schoolchildren suffer from mental health issues. A significant cause of this is the news coverage related to climate change and the environment, which has driven even the most gifted young people into deep anxiety.

For this reason, I once again decided to analyze the melting of Arctic sea ice, which has been claimed to result in ice-free waters by the 2030s. Based on the statistics, I created the following image using data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's dataset "All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily," which officially begins in 1987 (prior to this, the dataset only contains data for every second day).

From this dataset, I extracted the minimum extent of Arctic ice for each year and plotted the following image, which shows the annual minimum extent of Arctic ice, its five-year moving average, and a linear trendline generated by Excel, which I manually extended across the entire chart.

From the red five-year moving average, it can be seen that the ice melt can be divided into three phases. From the start of the dataset until the mid-1990s, it was slow, but then accelerated for over a decade, reaching its minimum in 2013. After that, the melting slowed down again.

The black regression curve drawn on the chart for the entire dataset, however, shows that if the trend were to continue as it has in the recorded data, the Arctic sea ice would likely not be ice-free even by 2050. Therefore, the melting predicted by climate scientists for the 2030s must be based on other factors.

To understand this, I drew another image, in which I manually fitted a straight line that follows only the rapid melting phase in the middle of the dataset, aligning with the red five-year moving average. This appears as a green line in the image below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this line corresponds to the scientific prediction of ice melt in the near future. Thus, it seems that the forecast in question—despite being mathematically and scientifically complex—is ultimately based on a development that would occur if the ice melt follows the trend from the late 1990s to 2013.

But what about the events in Arctic sea ice melting after 2013? To understand this, I performed a similar manual line fitting operation based on the post-2013 data. This is shown as a blue line in the diagram below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this "data fit" also indicates a downward trend, but a very gradual one. And if this trend prevails in the Arctic, no living person today will witness an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Not even their children.

Therefore, I would hope that media coverage of climate change, and especially the melting of Arctic sea ice, would be less sensationalist and instead highlight the factors that suggest extreme views are unlikely to materialize. These also indicate that the models predicting rapid climate change still involve vast uncertainties, suggesting that humanity most likely has ample time to adapt to the ever-changing environment.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January

 

The Environmental Crime Had Many Cooks, But Who Will Pay?

A couple of weeks ago, an environmental crime took place in Finland that has garnered massive attention in Finnish media. It involved the destruction of a river inhabited by the protected freshwater pearl mussel, caused by repeatedly driving a forestry machine over it hundreds of times.

The case came to light because there happened to be an outsider present at the scene, who pointed out the issue to the machine operator, only to receive a response filled with foul language and a statement that they would continue working as before. Since then, the case has led to a police investigation, but the outcome is not yet known.

In practice, the forest had been purchased by Stora Enso, a Finnish-Swedish forest industry company. It had contracted the forestry work to a harvesting contractor, who in turn had subcontracted the job. The crime itself was committed by an employee of this subcontractor.

However, Finnish news coverage has largely focused on Stora Enso's potential liability in the incident. It hasn't helped that the company has given an open mandate to repair whatever can be repaired at its expense and has suspended wood procurement from all sites known to have environmental restrictions. Additionally, it has reported one site to the authorities where the company suspects illegal activity may have taken place.

As I mentioned earlier, the matter is under police investigation, which will eventually determine who is responsible. Right now, however, it seems to me that Stora Enso has been unfairly placed in the spotlight, as the available information suggests that the company provided proper instructions to the contractor, but the operator did not follow them and continued illegal activity after being warned about it.

In any case, the destruction of freshwater pearl mussels has a price under Finnish law – 589 euros per individual – so the destruction of potentially thousands of animals could lead to compensation exceeding a million euros. It remains to be seen whether Stora Enso, the main contractor, the subcontractor, or the machine operator will be held financially responsible.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
A new justification is needed for environmental activists