Newsom Rising, Unity Fading

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s chances of becoming the next President of the United States increased significantly after the current head of state, Donald Trump, decided to use tough measures to quell the riots in Los Angeles.

If—and when—this happens, it will mean a further deepening of the divide within the United States. This is because Newsom belongs to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and will likely face off against a Trump-aligned Republican. 

This does not bode well for the global superpower that has led the world for a long time, and which is increasingly being challenged by China economically, militarily, and politically. Nor is it good news for Western Europe, where people have, for far too long, operated under the assumption that the U.S. will selflessly take care of global security matters without EU countries investing in their own defense to the same extent.

That’s why it is important for Americans, after the Trump era, to succeed in finding more common ground rather than allowing politically opposed leaders to dig even deeper trenches between different segments of the population. And neither Newsom nor his potential Trumpist opponent is the right person to lead such a unifying process.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ego at the Altar
Should Finland Heed the Warnings of a Left-Wing Idealist?
Europe Needs Leadership and Urgent Defense Actions

Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump (Rep) won the election against his opponent Kamala Harris (Dem) and is now also the upcoming president. This offers Europe some food for thought.

In economic terms, Trump is expected to strongly advocate for the interests of American businesses and workers. This will likely manifest in the form of increased tariffs, making it harder for other countries to export their products to the U.S.

Europe – and other regions as well – will thus need to consider whether to respond with their own tariffs or simply criticize the Trump administration for its anti-free-trade stance. The former seems more likely, which could ultimately slow down global economic growth.

Trump is also expected to take a firm stance on the humanitarian migration flow from Mexico to the U.S.. This aligns with policies in some EU countries aiming for similar goals. However, it remains to be seen whether either will ultimately succeed in halting the flow of people from developing countries, driven by rapid population growth and a large standard-of-living gap with destination countries.

It is important to note here that, in the U.S., one must work to get by. In many European countries, on the other hand, it's been sufficient to collect social benefits and live off them comfortably.

In military terms, Trump’s overall stance is clear. He demands that NATO’s European members increase their defense spending, without which he won’t commit to guaranteeing their security in the same way the U.S. has done for decades.

Taiwan and Ukraine, of course, are special cases, and I haven’t quite grasped Trump’s stance on them. However, I assume he won’t leave Taiwan at China’s mercy, though Ukraine remains a bigger question mark.

My dear readers will undoubtedly recall that Trump promised to bring peace to Ukraine within a day. However, it’s unclear how he could even achieve that. Unless Trump issues Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to withdraw his forces from Ukraine or face the U.S. military.

Such an approach might indeed work, but in that case, there would be a risk that Russia’s cornered dictator would resort to nuclear weapons. And that would be disastrous for everyone in this world.

Be that as it may, Donald Trump is taking responsibility for U.S. policy, and others must accept that. For Finland’s part, President Alexander Stubb summed up the situation by stating that Finland will get along with the U.S. regardless of who leads the country. On this, I have no further comments.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Message From and To Vladimir Putin
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt
Trump is leaving Africa

 

Biden's Withdrawal Opens a New Possibility for Democrats!

Yesterday brought the long-awaited news of Joe Biden's announcement to not pursue a second presidential term. This immediately reshaped the course of the U.S. presidential election.

At this point, many are likely certain that Biden’s withdrawal has secured Donald Trump’s re-election for a second term as the president of the world's leading superpower. However, I am not so sure about this.

Of course, I admit that Trump’s challenger is in a hurry to justify to the nation why he or she should be elected. The situation is not made any easier by the fact that the competitor has gained sympathy from an assassination attempt against him.

In reality, however, the new candidate—whoever he or she may be—holds a trump card, at least if he or she is relatively unknown to most of the electorate. This way, his or her first national appearance will create an unusually significant impression on the voters.

If this impression pleases the majority of voters, Donald Trump will be in trouble, because despite his great popularity, he also evokes a lot of negative feelings among people. Therefore, in a country with low voter turnout like the United States, an appealing candidate might motivate even those voters who could not imagine placing their trust in either Biden or Trump.

Therefore, the Democrats should look for a candidate who has the potential to successfully launch their campaign in the manner I described above. But if they fail to do so, another four years of Trumpism lies ahead.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Joe Biden Must Step Aside, But Can a Suitable Candidate Be Found?
Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, was interviewed on the Fox channel, which aligns with the US Republicans. However, he did not comment on the relative merits of the presidential candidates but stated that regardless of who leads the United States, Finland will get along with him.

Stubb also noted with satisfaction that an increasing number of NATO member countries have invested the agreed two percent of their GDP in defense. He gave credit for this to the former US president who brought up the issue at the time.

Instead of addressing specific issues, he mentioned that the political discourse in the US has become toxic, and he does not want the free world to emulate it. This can also be interpreted as a comment on Finland's domestic political debate, which also has become unnecessarily polarized in recent years.

He also suggested that the US and Finland could deepen their defense cooperation, for example, in the field of icebreakers, as 80 percent of the world's icebreakers are designed and 60 percent are manufactured in Finland. However, it remains to be seen whether the Pentagon will take up this offer.

Overall, I was quite skeptical of Alexander Stubb's ability to serve as president after he was elected. Therefore, I am very pleased to see that, in my view, he has performed his duties very well thus far, as also evidenced by the interview seen on Fox.

One can only hope that this continues in the future. And that the US also gets a political leader in the upcoming elections who exceeds the expectations of the voters.

* * *

At the same time, the presidential race in the United States is intensifying. The latest development was an assassination attempt on a candidate, resulting in the death of one likely Donald Trump voter, as well as the shooter. Additionally, at least two people were seriously injured.

However, it is likely that Trump's support among voters has rather increased than decreased as a result of the assassination attempt, given that Trump himself sustained a minor injury. This is partly because, during the heated campaign, some Democrats have carelessly expressed wishes for violence against Trump - a fact his supporters are not shy to highlight.

The incident is also serious in terms of freedom of speech. The central question is whether last night's shooting would have occurred without the Democrats' violent rhetoric. Or were those statements ultimately irrelevant, with the shooter's motive emerging from "ordinary" political discourse, which is, in any case, extremely polarized in the United States.

We will never get a definitive answer to these questions, as the shooter is not here to tell. And this will not change, no matter how much the background of the incident is analyzed by any group of political commentators.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Finns want a border law
Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security

Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security

The world is in a dire situation, as the upcoming president of the United States appears to be either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. The latter's signs of dementia have become increasingly apparent and have become a hot potato in the politics of the Western superpower, particularly with the so-called Hur report bluntly stating the matter.

Of course, Biden's supporters have launched a counterattack, assuring that the president's memory functions flawlessly and attempting to demonstrate that the report is politically motivated. However, it is clear that the doubt it brings will linger in people's minds, and any minor public slip-up by Biden will significantly affect the less fanatical part of his voters in the future.

However, this does not mean that Donald Trump is returning to the White House. Firstly, he needs support from the U.S. Supreme Court, and secondly, he must somehow convince his voter base throughout the entire election campaign that the undoubtedly fierce accusations of inciting rebellion during the previous elections by his opponent are untrue.

From the perspective of us Europeans, the problem lies in the difficulty of determining which option is better for us - the inherently unpredictable Trump or Biden, who seems physically elderly and appears to be suffering from dementia. And the situation is not improved by Trump's advance mention of his reluctance to unconditionally support Europe if Russia were to invade Ukraine and then shift its focus to another bordering country.

Regarding the latter, I was pleased to note that our future president, Alexander Stubb, understood Donald Trump to be "essentially right" in suggesting that Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While Finland's defense capability is in order, Russia's brutal aggressiveness ultimately cannot be restrained without significant support either from the United States or through a much greater investment in military capability by the major Western European countries - Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.

In that sense, the competition between the two elderly men in the United States for leadership of the country may ultimately awaken decision-makers on our continent and thereby enhance Europe's security. And in the best-case scenario, Biden may have to withdraw his candidacy and be replaced by a younger and hopefully capable alternative who can defeat Trump in the election and, while in office, even reduce the extreme internal division within the Western superpower.

The result could be a militarily strong Europe, supported by a security-conscious United States.

The original thought in Finnish:
Bidenin dementia ja Trumpin puheet saattavat parantaa Euroopan turvallisuutta

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Erdogan wants fighter jets, and uses Finland and Sweden to get them