Independence and the Sword of Damocles

Finland became independent exactly 108 years ago. Has that been a long or a short time?

One way to look at it is that Finns of my age have lived through and experienced most of the country’s independence. And our grandparents were born in the autonomous Grand Duchy of Finland within the Russian Empire.

On the other hand, Finland’s independence has lasted as long as the time it spent as part of Russia. The Finnish War was fought in 1808–09, and in the ensuing peace agreement the eastern parts of the then Kingdom of Sweden—those along the Gulf of Bothnia and in the north along the Tornio and Muonio rivers—were ceded to Russia.

During its 108 years, the autonomous Grand Duchy had only five grand dukes. The first was Alexander I, who decided to make Finland autonomous and incorporated into it the territories east of the Kymi River that Russia had previously conquered. Our last grand duke was Nicholas II, who set out to dismantle Finland’s autonomous status—something that caused widespread dissatisfaction and ultimately led to Finland’s independence.

Independent Finland has had thirteen presidents and seventy-seven governments. At the beginning of independence, strong powers were granted to the president because there was considerable monarchist sentiment among the people. Since the 1980s, however, constitutional reforms have made the government and its prime minister the country’s de facto wielders of power—excluding foreign policy, where strong presidents Sauli Niinistö and Alexander Stubb have kept the reins firmly in their own hands.

* * *

History belongs to the past, and although it is pleasant to recall, the fate of our people will be decided in the future. And so our descendants will see whether Finland is still Finnish after another 108 years—that is, in 2133.

As history shows, a great deal can happen over such a long span of time, and predicting the outcome is impossible—just as it was in December 1917. Few people back then could have imagined our life as members of the European Union and of the Western defence alliance 108 years later. And such long-term foresight is hardly possible today either.

Nevertheless, there is reason for confidence in the future, because Finland is a democracy, and as such the country’s fate lies in the hands of its people. Yet hidden within this fact is a kind of Sword of Damocles: with good decisions, the future of Finns can be at least as bright as the past 108 years, but poor decisions could lead to national decline and a harsh future for generations to come.

That is why we—and future Finns—must exercise our rightful power with care and wisdom: to secure the success of our homeland and its Finnish people.

Despite all this — or perhaps precisely because of it — I wish all of you, my esteemed readers, a very happy Finnish Independence Day!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender identity and the future of Finnishness
Finns - Among the World’s Best
Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Itsenäisyys ja Damokleen miekka

May Day Reflections from a President—and a Student

The former President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, was both a lawyer and a politician during his career. That combination is not particularly rare, but what is unusual is a former head of state openly sharing memories from his student days.

Niinistö was likely inspired by the upcoming May Day Eve, which in Finland is a celebration not only for workers but also for students. That was already the case during his own time as a law student, when the festivities would begin well in advance.

One year, however, the student celebrations in Turku took a turn when a law students’ organization was caught selling alcohol illegally. Niinistö didn’t elaborate on the consequences but did offer a cryptic comment: the festivities didn’t end there—“lawyers always find a loophole.”

As a student, Niinistö lived mostly on study loans but worked whenever he could. He was willing to take on any job, so the future MP, minister, and president gained some early experience in the political trenches—by, for example, repairing sewers.

Looking back, he described the most valuable lesson of those years as learning, little by little, to recognize different kinds of people—and to understand that “in the end, we’re all carved from roughly the same wood.”

One of the president’s most poignant international memories was connected to the Prague Spring—the Czechoslovak uprising of 1968. Niinistö had a couple of Czech friends who, inspired by the movement, returned to their homeland that spring and disappeared. As he put it: “the guys went to Prague in the spring, and nothing was ever heard from them again, even though they were passionate fellows.”

That story reminds us of the cruelty inflicted by the Soviet-led socialist dictatorship within its sphere of influence. And it strengthens our resolve to ensure that Europe is never again divided into spheres of influence between the West and Russia.

With these presidential memories, I wish all readers of this blog a joyful May Day! Enjoy the spirit of spring—whether you are a worker, a student, or simply a fellow human being. And always stay on the right side!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Brianna Wu's advice and the reality of Finnish politics
Finnish horror gallery and reality
What seemed to be impossible just two years ago is going to happen in very near future

President of Finland Asked Whether There Are Top Politicians With Serious Intellectual Limitations

The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, outlined today in Kyiv the facts that must be realized in any potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. They are as follows:

1. Ukraine’s EU membership is for the European Union to decide, not Russia.

2. Ukraine’s NATO membership is for NATO to decide, not Russia.

3. Russia cannot decide on territories that belong to Ukraine or define its borders.

4. Russia cannot determine Europe’s security order, as it already exists.

All of these are, of course, self-evident facts that no serious politician would dispute. And that is why bringing them up would be unnecessary if every relevant party had common sense.

Unfortunately, that does not seem to be the case, and even the most obvious facts must be reiterated time and time again. It remains to be seen whether the so-called top politicians of the world still include those with severe shortcomings in their understanding, revealing their intellectual limitations by advocating ideas that contradict the Finnish president’s list.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Trump’s America: Criminal or Benefactor?
Putin, Trump, and the Prospect of Peace

Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump (Rep) won the election against his opponent Kamala Harris (Dem) and is now also the upcoming president. This offers Europe some food for thought.

In economic terms, Trump is expected to strongly advocate for the interests of American businesses and workers. This will likely manifest in the form of increased tariffs, making it harder for other countries to export their products to the U.S.

Europe – and other regions as well – will thus need to consider whether to respond with their own tariffs or simply criticize the Trump administration for its anti-free-trade stance. The former seems more likely, which could ultimately slow down global economic growth.

Trump is also expected to take a firm stance on the humanitarian migration flow from Mexico to the U.S.. This aligns with policies in some EU countries aiming for similar goals. However, it remains to be seen whether either will ultimately succeed in halting the flow of people from developing countries, driven by rapid population growth and a large standard-of-living gap with destination countries.

It is important to note here that, in the U.S., one must work to get by. In many European countries, on the other hand, it's been sufficient to collect social benefits and live off them comfortably.

In military terms, Trump’s overall stance is clear. He demands that NATO’s European members increase their defense spending, without which he won’t commit to guaranteeing their security in the same way the U.S. has done for decades.

Taiwan and Ukraine, of course, are special cases, and I haven’t quite grasped Trump’s stance on them. However, I assume he won’t leave Taiwan at China’s mercy, though Ukraine remains a bigger question mark.

My dear readers will undoubtedly recall that Trump promised to bring peace to Ukraine within a day. However, it’s unclear how he could even achieve that. Unless Trump issues Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to withdraw his forces from Ukraine or face the U.S. military.

Such an approach might indeed work, but in that case, there would be a risk that Russia’s cornered dictator would resort to nuclear weapons. And that would be disastrous for everyone in this world.

Be that as it may, Donald Trump is taking responsibility for U.S. policy, and others must accept that. For Finland’s part, President Alexander Stubb summed up the situation by stating that Finland will get along with the U.S. regardless of who leads the country. On this, I have no further comments.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Message From and To Vladimir Putin
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt
Trump is leaving Africa

 

Moldova's Election Challenged – Western Support Needed

According to recent information, the pro-Russia Socialist Party has contested the results of the presidential election held in Moldova. The party claims that rule violations, as well as the reduction in the number of polling stations for Moldovans living in Russia, led to the defeat of the Socialist candidate.

This case is particularly significant because Moldova has expressed a strong desire to join the ranks of Western countries. Russia, however, is far from pleased with this and has instead supported the independence of Transnistria, a region formally part of Moldova, aiming to turn it into a Russian vassal state.

For this reason, I expect two things from the European Union, and Western nations in general, regarding this matter. First, they must ensure that the Socialist Party’s claims have no basis— as I assume— and thereafter express strong support for the president-elect, including, if necessary, defending Moldova's independence by force. This support should ideally involve sending peacekeepers to the country, should Moldova’s leadership so desire.

This course of action is necessary to prevent Russia from finding room to pursue its ambitions of reintegrating former Soviet republics under Moscow’s control. It will also ensure that Moldovans do not end up in the same situation as Ukrainians have faced.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Elections in Georgia and Japan: The Future of Democracy on Different Paths
Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams
Vladimir Putin is Leading Russia into an Economic Ruin

Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, was interviewed on the Fox channel, which aligns with the US Republicans. However, he did not comment on the relative merits of the presidential candidates but stated that regardless of who leads the United States, Finland will get along with him.

Stubb also noted with satisfaction that an increasing number of NATO member countries have invested the agreed two percent of their GDP in defense. He gave credit for this to the former US president who brought up the issue at the time.

Instead of addressing specific issues, he mentioned that the political discourse in the US has become toxic, and he does not want the free world to emulate it. This can also be interpreted as a comment on Finland's domestic political debate, which also has become unnecessarily polarized in recent years.

He also suggested that the US and Finland could deepen their defense cooperation, for example, in the field of icebreakers, as 80 percent of the world's icebreakers are designed and 60 percent are manufactured in Finland. However, it remains to be seen whether the Pentagon will take up this offer.

Overall, I was quite skeptical of Alexander Stubb's ability to serve as president after he was elected. Therefore, I am very pleased to see that, in my view, he has performed his duties very well thus far, as also evidenced by the interview seen on Fox.

One can only hope that this continues in the future. And that the US also gets a political leader in the upcoming elections who exceeds the expectations of the voters.

* * *

At the same time, the presidential race in the United States is intensifying. The latest development was an assassination attempt on a candidate, resulting in the death of one likely Donald Trump voter, as well as the shooter. Additionally, at least two people were seriously injured.

However, it is likely that Trump's support among voters has rather increased than decreased as a result of the assassination attempt, given that Trump himself sustained a minor injury. This is partly because, during the heated campaign, some Democrats have carelessly expressed wishes for violence against Trump - a fact his supporters are not shy to highlight.

The incident is also serious in terms of freedom of speech. The central question is whether last night's shooting would have occurred without the Democrats' violent rhetoric. Or were those statements ultimately irrelevant, with the shooter's motive emerging from "ordinary" political discourse, which is, in any case, extremely polarized in the United States.

We will never get a definitive answer to these questions, as the shooter is not here to tell. And this will not change, no matter how much the background of the incident is analyzed by any group of political commentators.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
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Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security

Is the Finnish left-wing radicalizing?

Finland is accustomed to being regarded as a stable democracy where politics does not generate the kind of polarization seen in some other countries. While there has been political violence here, including a bloody civil war initiated and lost by the Reds over a hundred years ago, politics has been relatively calm and respectful of different parties since World War II.

This trend is expected to continue this winter as a new president is elected in Finland. As a sign of this, various candidates' campaign advertisements have recently appeared along the streets, usually left undisturbed.

Among Finland's major cities, Tampere is an industrial city, and accordingly, its population tends to lean towards the left politically. Despite this, I was surprised this morning to read about how people in Tampere had immediately vandalized campaign posters of the third most popular candidate, Jussi Halla-aho (Finns Party), according to polls.

Does this mean that the deep respect Finns have held for democracy throughout my lifetime is changing, and the left is once again radicalizing and resorting to extra-parliamentary means? Hopefully not, as one of the key factors in Finland's rise from a developing country a hundred years ago to one of the world's wealthiest nations has been based on precisely respecting democracy and the ability to reconcile conflicts between different population and interest groups.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Finland have the first openly homosexual president?
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Will Finland have the first openly homosexual president?

In Finland, a new president will be elected in the beginning of next year. One of the main candidates is Pekka Haavisto (Greens), who, while serving as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, even broke Finnish laws to bring terrorists from the Al-Hol camps to Finland.

It remains to be seen whether this fact will affect his success in the election. And if it does, then in which direction.

Haavisto has a strong support base among the political left and the sexual minorities. Thanks to this, he gained over 37 percent of the support in the 2012 presidential elections, in which the outgoing president Sauli Niinistö was elected as the head of state of Finland.

In the upcoming elections, Haavisto is currently the frontrunner, but it remains to be seen whether the situation changes once the election campaigns pick up pace. If he gets elected, he would become Finland's first openly homosexual head of state. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Veronmaksajan lasku on 20 000 euroa per islamisti + muut kulut (In Finnish, but readable by e.g. Google translator: The taxpayer's bill is 20,000 euros per Islamist + additional expenses)
Haaviston lain vastaisesti vaihtama virkamies otti vastuun terrorismista - mutta se kuuluu silti Marinin kabinetille (In Finnish, but readable by e.g. Google translator: The official changed by Haavisto against the law took responsibility for terrorism - yet it still falls under Marin's cabinet)

Are we going to allow ISIS women to ride on their children? 

COVID-19 against Finland´s NATO plans

The president of Finland - Sauli Niinistö - has an infection of SARS-CoV-2. Fortunately, according to the announcement, his condition is good, and he continues working.

Timing of the virus infection was worst possible. That is, exactly in the middle of Finland´s preparation of its application to join NATO.  

There is no doubt that Russians and their trolls would not do their best to take advantage on the situation. An example was already given by a member of the House of Lords of the United Kingdom, Robert Skidelsky, who warned in Twitter that "application by Finland to join NATO would be a catastrophic mistake". 

Therefore I hope the infection would not affect President Niinistö´s activity in this task of utmost importance. But if it does, I hope he will share this duty with the Prime Minister Sanna Marin to get the NATO application submitted without any delay, but taking care of all preliminaries necessary. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Political rats and useful idiots
Finland and NATO - problems to be solved