Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Russia has found itself increasingly cornered in its three-day special military operation in recent days. Perhaps the most striking example of this is the destruction of oil industry facilities in the Moscow region—caused primarily by Ukrainian drones, but apparently also by Russian air defense systems themselves.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have extended their attacks as far as the Tyumen oil refinery, located some 2,500 kilometers away. Nor does the plight of the Crimean Peninsula, due to the vulnerability of its supply lines, make President Vladimir Putin's position any easier.

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All of this has led to a counteroffensive by Russian trolls on social media. The strikes on Moscow are claimed to be a hoax, there are assertions that Russia is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, and there are even threats of nuclear war being triggered by the destruction of the oil industry.

In fact, the outbreak of nuclear war as a consequence of Russia's deteriorating fortunes in the war may be a real threat if Vladimir Putin fears that his position could be endangered by a military defeat. From his perspective, defeat could mean being overthrown or even losing his life.

For this reason, it would be important for Western countries—and especially the United States—to state unequivocally that the use of a Russian nuclear weapon would, under any circumstances, cross the threshold for retaliation directed at wherever intelligence indicates Putin happens to be residing at the time. Hopefully, the fear resulting from such a declaration would be sufficient in all circumstances to keep Russian nuclear weapons on their launch platforms.

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At the same time, it should be emphasized to Russia's dictator that he still has the opportunity to make peace. All that would be required is the withdrawal of his forces from Ukraine and the payment of compensation for the destruction caused by his special military operation.

And that Putin still possesses at least a small measure of common sense. On the other hand, it may be—as I wrote above—that Putin no longer has a future if Russia returns from Ukraine defeated. He is undoubtedly aware of the historical precedent of Russia's defeat in the First World War, which led to the murder of Tsar Nicholas II and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?
The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army
Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

Russian Fake News vs. Reality

Russian scammers have informed people wanting to come to Finland that the border would soon be opened and are offering them transportation services. As a result, people have appeared near the border after being deceived into believing that the border will open shortly.

These individuals have been transported close to the border and then left to fend for themselves, with Russian authorities denying responsibility for the fake news. However, outlets like Komsomolskaya Pravda have falsely claimed that Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party) was supposedly seeking ways to negotiate with Russia to open one border crossing point.

Finland’s Minister of the Interior, Mari Rantanen (Finns Party), has reacted to the Russian reporting and stated that “Finland's eastern border remains closed until further notice.” Hopefully, this message is also understood by the Muslims in Russia who are longing to move to Finland.

They should also be aware that, as of the beginning of this year, it is no longer possible to obtain permanent asylum in Finland. Instead, the right to stay in the country ends as soon as the need for asylum ceases. In other words, it is no longer worth coming to Finland under the guise of international protection just to seek a higher standard of living supported by social benefits for the rest of one's life.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Defending National Security: Finland's Response to Hybrid Warfare
Getting asylum in Finland becomes significantly more difficult
Duck emphasizing the urgency of the new border law

5.5 billion loan to establish an alcoholism foundation

In Finland, alcoholism is a massive problem, and recently, drugs have also emerged as an issue alongside it. This is because substance abuse problems often lead to financial difficulties, prompting the parliament to narrowly approve a citizen initiative proposing the establishment and funding of a special foundation for those struggling with substance abuse issues.

The foundation's one-time basic capital is envisaged to be one thousand euros per capita in Finland. Due to Finland's challenging economic situation, the total amount accrued—approximately 5.5 billion euros—will have to be covered through government borrowing. However, this was not seen as a problem, as the public debt is already so large that it's just a drop in the ocean.

According to the preliminary plan, the foundation's funds would be invested profitably in electricity transmission fees, supplemented by a statutory additional fee, which would go towards the foundation's financing without reduction. As the foundation's assets accumulate, individuals struggling with substance abuse could apply to the foundation for financial support. Additional support could also be obtained by presenting receipts from Alko (the Finnish state-owned alcohol retail monopoly) or drug dealers.

For the aforementioned alcohol policy change, the government has established a working group, which includes a representative from the Centre Party and the Finns Party bringing the perspectives of alcoholics, as well as one Green Party and one Left Alliance member serving as experts in various other substances. The working group is chaired by a representative from the Swedish People's Party specializing in foundation financing, assisted by an expert with a background in the National Coalition Party.

The working group is known as "Huhtikuu ensin" in Finnish, although due to increasing internationalization, it is usually referred to by its English translation, "April first".