Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies

Ukraine's successful offensive against Russia has undoubtedly caused headaches for Putin's administration. And it is not impossible that the Russians might decide to do something extraordinary to rid themselves of this embarrassing situation.

One possibility, of course, would be to divert the Ukrainians' attention elsewhere. This could happen in cooperation with Belarus, for example, by inciting Lukashenko to involve his army in the war.

Such a move would obviously not be in Belarus' best interest, especially given that its military is weak compared to Russia and even Ukraine. However, the fact remains that Belarus has gathered a large contingent of troops near the Ukrainian border.

The most likely reason for this, however, is not an attack on Ukraine but the annual joint military exercises held with Russia. This would also explain the presence of Russian units in the area, such as the Wagner Group.

From the Ukrainians' perspective, it is clear that the troops gathering in the north cannot be ignored, and Zelensky will need to deploy his own military units in response. Therefore, Lukashenko will end up assisting Putin’s army, even if the Belarusians do not carry out a single operation across the Ukrainian border.

One can only hope that this doesn’t halt Ukraine’s well-advanced progress on the Russian side of the border. This is important because the further they advance, the more they will affect Russia in the same way that the Belarusian troops are affecting Ukraine: by forcing Putin to halt his own sluggish but progressing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and relocate his units away from Ukraine.

There is a fourth card in this game as well—one that has remained hidden so far—namely Poland. Militarily strong, Poland could, if it chose to, significantly alter the military balance in Ukraine. That’s why the recent incursion of a Russian drone into Polish airspace was extremely bad news for the Russians, as it gives the Poles a legitimate reason to intervene in the war in Ukraine.

One clear reason for such an intervention could be the resolution of World War II, in which Poland was shifted about a hundred kilometers westward. The lost territories likely still stir strong emotions among many Poles, which might lower the threshold for seizing the opportunity to right the wrongs experienced by their grandparents. Especially when Russia's army in Ukraine has proven to be more of a paper tiger than a real military force.

It remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will continue from the current situation, and whether a resolution will eventually be reached that all parties can accept. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto aligned Indonesia on the wrong side of world history

Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has put forth a substantive proposition for a ceasefire at the current positions. He emphasized the importance of reaching a decision regarding the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the areas affected by the ongoing armed conflict. Additionally, Subianto proposed the deployment of United Nations peacekeepers in these regions.

The proposal practically means supporting Putin's Russia, which attacked Ukraine. This indicates that Indonesian leaders fail to grasp the fact that they are aligning themselves on the wrong side of world history. Supporting an aggressive aggressor essentially undermines the foundation of a world where international agreements hold value and those who violate them are held accountable for their actions.

In doing so, Indonesia also marginalizes itself from the intellectual and economic progress of the world, which results in a lower quality of life for its citizens than what would otherwise be possible. However, it is true that the choice is ultimately for the Indonesian people to make, and external parties who adhere to international rules cannot interfere with it. But they also do not have to favor the disruptor.

Therefore, it is important that as many countries as possible express their clear opposition to Subianto's proposal, highlighting that it does not generate sympathy among their own populations towards Indonesia.

The timing of the proposal is likely not a coincidence. It was presented at a time when Putin's army has weakened and is destined to lose the war. The timing may also have been influenced by President Zelensky's statement that Ukraine is ready for a counterattack, which could be launched at any moment.

In this situation, it is desirable that the offensive is launched successfully, causing panic among the Russian occupiers. If that happens, the liberation of the country may not come at an exorbitant cost to the Ukrainians, even though they are prepared to pay any price for it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Does the attack by Russian rebels pose a problem for Ukraine?
Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?
Incapable of learning but capable of genocide

Does the attack by Russian rebels pose a problem for Ukraine?

Today's news reported that a military unit composed of Russian rebels from Ukraine crossed the border into Russia. The reason for the attack has been attributed to increased attacks on Ukraine by Russian forces. According to the Visegrad 24 channel, the attackers have threatened that "their goal is Moscow's Red Square."

This turn of events is not rational from the perspective of Ukraine or, especially, Western countries because Vladimir Putin could use it to legitimize Russian military operations in Ukraine and elsewhere. It is also important to remember the statement made by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in an interview with the US channel CNN: "If our country faces an existential threat, the (use of nuclear weapons) may be considered."

Of course, it is evident that a Russian military unit from Ukraine will never reach Red Square and, therefore, does not pose an "existential threat" to Putin or Russia itself. However, facts have never mattered in Putin's actions. Therefore, the border crossing that has occurred now could lead to at least nuclear threats against Ukraine.

Another unfortunate consequence for Ukrainians may be that public opinion in Western countries turns against assisting Ukraine. If this happens, Ukraine's received military aid may decrease, endangering the country's defense against Russian aggression.

Hence, President Zelensky's advisor's comment stating that Ukraine has nothing to do with the attacking unit is sensible. It remains to be seen whether it will be believed in Putin's administration or even in Western countries.

Of course, I hope that the advisor's statement about Ukraine's dissociation from the attack by the Russian unit holds true and is believed everywhere beyond Ukraine's borders. I also hope that neither of the unpleasant possibilities I mentioned earlier materializes. 

Instead, I hope that the Russians do not exploit the propaganda advantage offered to them and that Western countries perceive the Russian rebels' attack as a rebellion against Putin's regime. Unfortunately, the outcome does not depend on my earnest wish. And not even from the fact that crossing the border could still be a repetition of the shots fired at Mainila.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: 
Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?
Did the Finnish Prime Minister promise Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine?
Incapable of learning but capable of genocide