The Finnish Ministry of Defence issued a terse statement reporting that a Russian aircraft had violated Finnish airspace. This was by no means the first such incident—something similar occurred most recently in late May.
Such actions are, of course, inherently irrational coming from a state that has entangled itself in a years-long war. If this were to lead to a military confrontation on Finnish territory, it would significantly complicate Russia’s position in Ukraine, as part of its armed forces would have to be redirected to a new front.
However, there appears to be little risk of that happening. The Russians seem to trust that Finland will handle the matter through diplomatic channels. In this case, that meant summoning the Russian ambassador to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, where he was given a message to take back to Moscow.
I find it difficult to understand Russia’s behavior in the Baltic region, as it yields no visible benefits. Not even testing the readiness of Finland’s air force qualifies, since the Russians have seen that many times before.
Therefore, the reasons are likely to be found in Russia’s domestic politics. Perhaps this kind of low-risk saber-rattling offers the Kremlin a sense of satisfaction—or even a narrative to present to ordinary Russians worn down by the war in Ukraine.
Russia is a country one can't understand with a reason.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what would happen, if the border violator would be shot down with some unfortunate mishap. Just an accident like the border violation.
That's probably that Putin thinks would be his win.
DeleteI assume the ops exist to produce propaganda how 'big' Russia is and how it has to control the Baltic sea just like the Azov sea.
The 'only superstate in Europe' argument from those who run out of potatoes.
Or it could be Russian planes don't have a working navigation that the drunken pilot can use.