The Finnish Ski Association has named its team for the World Championships in Trondheim. It is now time to speculate on how the Finnish skiers will perform on the demanding courses of the land of fjords. I will do so in the order in which the competitions take place.
I will start with the women's sprint, which will be contested in the freestyle technique. Among the Finnish skiers, the highest expectations rest on Jasmi Joensuu, who has improved her performances for several years in a row and has climbed into the world's top ten in her discipline, most likely finishing between 4th and 6th place.
Other Finnish participants in the sprint are Jasmin Kähärä, Katri Lylynperä, and Amanda Saari. Finishing in the top twelve, meaning reaching the semifinals, would be a good achievement for them, but this group does not have realistic medal hopes.
In the men's sprint, Lauri Vuorinen has been the most successful Finnish skier this season, and thus, it is realistic to expect him to reach the final. However, like Joensuu, a medal for him would be a surprise.
Other Finnish sprinters, Niilo Moilanen and Joni Mäki, are question marks, but if they perform well, they have chances to reach the semifinals. Mäki, in particular, might even make it to the final if his improving form continues.
A medal for Mäki, however, would be a major surprise, which, if it happened, would push Vuorinen one place lower. For Emil Liekari, finishing in the top twelve would be an excellent result.
The next event is the men's skiathlon, where Finland's leading skier is Iivo Niskanen. He is the best in the world in the classic technique and would be the second-biggest favorite after Johannes Klæbo if the competition started with freestyle.
Unfortunately, that is not the case, so a realistic expectation for Niskanen is "only" a top ten finish. However, even the lowest step of the podium would not be a huge surprise.
None of the other Finns are expected to succeed in this race. Alongside Niskanen, the Finnish team includes Perttu Hyvärinen, Niko Anttola, and Arsi Ruuskanen.
Of them, Hyvärinen, who has previously performed well in major competitions, is the biggest uncertainty, but due to various issues this season, he is not expected to achieve notable success. Even with a very good race, his finish, like that of his two younger teammates, will likely be outside the top ten.
In the women's skiathlon, Finland is fielding two experienced athletes, Kerttu Niskanen and Krista Pärmäkoski. They are expected to deliver their best performances of the season, and at least one of them could make it onto the podium.
Additionally, Vilma Ryytty and Jasmin Kähärä will participate in the women's skiathlon. Ryytty’s chances of a good result depend on the classic section. If it is skied at a moderate pace, she could place in the top 20 thanks to her strong freestyle skiing.
Kähärä, however, is not expected to achieve such a result, even though the World Championships have fewer elite skiers than the World Cup. The same applies to Ryytty if the classic section is raced at full intensity.
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The third event, the 10 km classic race, is the most anticipated of the championships for Finnish fans. In the men's race, Iivo Niskanen is the top favorite, and failing to win a medal would be a major shock. His toughest competitor for gold is likely to be Johannes Klæbo, who has improved his endurance each year.
Among the other Finnish skiers, Ristomatti Hakola has the potential to finish in the top ten. The remaining spots will likely be filled based on the skiathlon results from the trio of Hyvärinen, Ruuskanen, and Anttola. Any of them, on a good day, could place in the top 20 or even the top 10, as the field is not as deep as in the World Cup. However, they are not medal contenders.
On the women's side, Finland’s top contender is again Kerttu Niskanen. Like her brother, she is capable of winning gold, but the competition is fierce (Johaug, Slind, Diggins, Andersson, Sundling, Weng, Hennig, Carl, etc.), making even a finish outside the medals possible.
The biggest Finnish surprise could be Krista Pärmäkoski, who has been improving in recent weeks. If her progress continues, she could also claim a medal.
Jasmi Joensuu might enter this race if she wishes, but she may choose to conserve energy for the team sprint the next day, where she has better medal prospects. Additionally, Johanna Matintalo will compete—her season has been difficult, so high expectations are not realistic. If Joensuu skips the race, her spot will likely go to Vilma Nissinen, Amanda Saari, or Vilma Ryytty, without significant pressure for success.
Following the interval-start races, the championships continue with the classic team sprint. A rule change has made it harder for Finland to win a medal in this event.
The change means the qualification round now consists of just one lap instead of the previous three-lap race. This favors sprinters over distance skiers.
In the women’s race, this strengthens Sweden’s favorite status even more. Thus, Finland and other teams will realistically be competing for silver at best.
The Finnish team will feature Jasmi Joensuu and one of either Kerttu Niskanen or Krista Pärmäkoski, with the faster-finishing Joensuu anchoring. This team is expected to place second or third, but the same applies to Norway and Germany, meaning one of the three will miss out on a medal. Hopefully, that won’t be Finland.
In the men’s race, this is likely Niskanen’s second main event. He will be paired with Ristomatti Hakola, whose strengths are well-suited for this format.
Gold is the expectation, but Norway will be a formidable opponent, and there is no doubt that if Klæbo reaches the final stretch alongside his rivals, he will secure victory. Still, a medal for Finland is highly probable.
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Summing up the Finnish prospects, I predict four likely and six possible medals. This indicates great optimism, so a correction factor must be applied.
If half of the likely medals materialize and around one-fifth of the possible ones come true, Finland will end up with three medals. This would still be a good result, as Finland won only one medal in the 2023 World Championships: silver in the men's relay.
Before that, in 2021, Finland claimed two medals: silver in the men’s team sprint and bronze in the women's relay. In 2019, the tally was just one bronze, won by Iivo Niskanen in the 15 km classic.
Let’s hope my correction factor is not too optimistic and that Finnish cross-country skiing fans can enjoy more medals than in the past three World Championships. And maybe even celebrate a gold medal!
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What ever. But tomorrow I will ski the first and last time of this winter. Beginning from Friday the winter is gone.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the skiing weather is bad in Trondheim too. Happy skiing for you anyway!
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