A Couple of Exceptionally Important Matters

Good morning, dear readers. I have two extremely important things to share with you today.

The first important matter is an announcement. As you know, I have been writing a Finnish-language parallel blog, with content highly similar to this English-language one, although the posts have mostly been separate.

However, I have now decided that, moving forward, I will primarily write about topics related to Finland in Finnish and international topics in English. Of course, for good reason, I may still publish the same articles in both languages or, for example, write about domestic politics in English if I find it appropriate. However, as a general rule, I will follow the approach I just described.

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My second important matter concerns the recently uncovered cheating by Norwegian ski jumpers. This is significant because Norway has long been both a true superpower in winter sports and a nation with an unblemished reputation. This was especially true after the Finnish cross-country team was caught using doping a couple of decades ago.

However, the recently exposed ski jumping suit fraud demonstrates that Norwegians are not inherently any cleaner than anyone else. It also reinforces my belief that their cross-country skiers used banned substances to enhance their performance in the early 2000s, just like many others did.

That being said, this does not mean that the Norwegian athletes did not deserve the flood of medals their male skiers claimed at the World Championships in Trondheim, which concluded yesterday. Nor does it diminish the achievements of Johannes Klæbo, the dominant skier of this era.

Of course, one can always speculate that the winner of the interval-start race in the classic technique would most likely have been Iivo Niskanen—had he been able to compete in the World Championships. Unfortunately for us Finns, medals at major competitions are awarded among those who participate, and in that field, Klæbo was superior to everyone else every single time. That was truly amazing!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Preview of the Trondheim World Ski Championships
The Relationship Between the Professor and Teemu Selänne

Preview of the Trondheim World Ski Championships

The Finnish Ski Association has named its team for the World Championships in Trondheim. It is now time to speculate on how the Finnish skiers will perform on the demanding courses of the land of fjords. I will do so in the order in which the competitions take place.

I will start with the women's sprint, which will be contested in the freestyle technique. Among the Finnish skiers, the highest expectations rest on Jasmi Joensuu, who has improved her performances for several years in a row and has climbed into the world's top ten in her discipline, most likely finishing between 4th and 6th place.

Other Finnish participants in the sprint are Jasmin Kähärä, Katri Lylynperä, and Amanda Saari. Finishing in the top twelve, meaning reaching the semifinals, would be a good achievement for them, but this group does not have realistic medal hopes.

In the men's sprint, Lauri Vuorinen has been the most successful Finnish skier this season, and thus, it is realistic to expect him to reach the final. However, like Joensuu, a medal for him would be a surprise.

Other Finnish sprinters, Niilo Moilanen and Joni Mäki, are question marks, but if they perform well, they have chances to reach the semifinals. Mäki, in particular, might even make it to the final if his improving form continues.

A medal for Mäki, however, would be a major surprise, which, if it happened, would push Vuorinen one place lower. For Emil Liekari, finishing in the top twelve would be an excellent result.

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The next event is the men's skiathlon, where Finland's leading skier is Iivo Niskanen. He is the best in the world in the classic technique and would be the second-biggest favorite after Johannes Klæbo if the competition started with freestyle.

Unfortunately, that is not the case, so a realistic expectation for Niskanen is "only" a top ten finish. However, even the lowest step of the podium would not be a huge surprise.

None of the other Finns are expected to succeed in this race. Alongside Niskanen, the Finnish team includes Perttu Hyvärinen, Niko Anttola, and Arsi Ruuskanen.

Of them, Hyvärinen, who has previously performed well in major competitions, is the biggest uncertainty, but due to various issues this season, he is not expected to achieve notable success. Even with a very good race, his finish, like that of his two younger teammates, will likely be outside the top ten.

In the women's skiathlon, Finland is fielding two experienced athletes, Kerttu Niskanen and Krista Pärmäkoski. They are expected to deliver their best performances of the season, and at least one of them could make it onto the podium.

Additionally, Vilma Ryytty and Jasmin Kähärä will participate in the women's skiathlon. Ryytty’s chances of a good result depend on the classic section. If it is skied at a moderate pace, she could place in the top 20 thanks to her strong freestyle skiing.

Kähärä, however, is not expected to achieve such a result, even though the World Championships have fewer elite skiers than the World Cup. The same applies to Ryytty if the classic section is raced at full intensity.

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The third event, the 10 km classic race, is the most anticipated of the championships for Finnish fans. In the men's race, Iivo Niskanen is the top favorite, and failing to win a medal would be a major shock. His toughest competitor for gold is likely to be Johannes Klæbo, who has improved his endurance each year.

Among the other Finnish skiers, Ristomatti Hakola has the potential to finish in the top ten. The remaining spots will likely be filled based on the skiathlon results from the trio of Hyvärinen, Ruuskanen, and Anttola. Any of them, on a good day, could place in the top 20 or even the top 10, as the field is not as deep as in the World Cup. However, they are not medal contenders.

On the women's side, Finland’s top contender is again Kerttu Niskanen. Like her brother, she is capable of winning gold, but the competition is fierce (Johaug, Slind, Diggins, Andersson, Sundling, Weng, Hennig, Carl, etc.), making even a finish outside the medals possible.

The biggest Finnish surprise could be Krista Pärmäkoski, who has been improving in recent weeks. If her progress continues, she could also claim a medal.

Jasmi Joensuu might enter this race if she wishes, but she may choose to conserve energy for the team sprint the next day, where she has better medal prospects. Additionally, Johanna Matintalo will compete—her season has been difficult, so high expectations are not realistic. If Joensuu skips the race, her spot will likely go to Vilma Nissinen, Amanda Saari, or Vilma Ryytty, without significant pressure for success.

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Following the interval-start races, the championships continue with the classic team sprint. A rule change has made it harder for Finland to win a medal in this event.

The change means the qualification round now consists of just one lap instead of the previous three-lap race. This favors sprinters over distance skiers.

In the women’s race, this strengthens Sweden’s favorite status even more. Thus, Finland and other teams will realistically be competing for silver at best.

The Finnish team will feature Jasmi Joensuu and one of either Kerttu Niskanen or Krista Pärmäkoski, with the faster-finishing Joensuu anchoring. This team is expected to place second or third, but the same applies to Norway and Germany, meaning one of the three will miss out on a medal. Hopefully, that won’t be Finland.

In the men’s race, this is likely Niskanen’s second main event. He will be paired with Ristomatti Hakola, whose strengths are well-suited for this format.

Gold is the expectation, but Norway will be a formidable opponent, and there is no doubt that if Klæbo reaches the final stretch alongside his rivals, he will secure victory. Still, a medal for Finland is highly probable.

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Summing up the Finnish prospects, I predict four likely and six possible medals. This indicates great optimism, so a correction factor must be applied.

If half of the likely medals materialize and around one-fifth of the possible ones come true, Finland will end up with three medals. This would still be a good result, as Finland won only one medal in the 2023 World Championships: silver in the men's relay.

Before that, in 2021, Finland claimed two medals: silver in the men’s team sprint and bronze in the women's relay. In 2019, the tally was just one bronze, won by Iivo Niskanen in the 15 km classic.

Let’s hope my correction factor is not too optimistic and that Finnish cross-country skiing fans can enjoy more medals than in the past three World Championships. And maybe even celebrate a gold medal! 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Eco-Fascist Blackmail: Threats of Sabotage Loom Over the World Ski Championships
A young woman skiing in a swimsuit caused a controversy among women
Is the world´s best skier in classical technique, Iivo Niskanen, going to recover from COVID-19

Eco-Fascist Blackmail: Threats of Sabotage Loom Over the World Ski Championships

Norwegian eco-fascists are planning to disrupt the so-called "king’s race" of the Trondheim World Championships, the 50-kilometer ski race. The threat is serious, as these so-called activists have previously attempted to sabotage ski competitions.

The group behind the threat, Folk mot fossilmakta, has stated that they will cause disturbances unless their two conditions are met. These conditions are as follows:

1. All visible logos and advertisements from fossil fuel companies must be removed.
2. A short informational video about the treaty to stop the spread of fossil fuels must be played on large screens throughout the entire World Championships.

In other words, this is not just a demand—Folk mot fossilmakta has made a "Godfather-style offer you can’t refuse." They are blackmailing the organizers of the World Championships, threatening to destroy them—or in this case, the competition that both the organizers and the world’s best skiers have painstakingly and expensively prepared for.

It remains to be seen how the organizers of the World Championships will respond to this extortion. The easiest option for them would, of course, be to comply with the demands and fulfill the wishes of the eco-fascists. However, the problem with such an approach is that giving in to this kind of mafia-like behavior would grant it significant visibility—leading to even more similar threats in various events for increasingly bizarre reasons in the future.

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The organizers’ headaches are further compounded by the fact that the "king’s race" in cross-country skiing is set to take place on a long 8.3-kilometer course, making it nearly impossible to guard completely. This remains true even though the eco-fascists will most likely try to maximize their visibility by staging their attack near TV cameras.

This is because, in mass start races, cameras are positioned to capture the entire course, meaning that sabotage can be carried out virtually anywhere. And the situation is further complicated by the fact that the 50-kilometer races are held twice in Trondheim—once for men and once for women.

It remains to be seen how the International Ski Federation and the Norwegian organizers will respond to the eco-fascist mafia’s threat. Will they give in to the blackmail to ensure that the competition doesn’t turn into a disaster? Or will they trust that law enforcement—ultimately responsible for maintaining order in the kingdom—will prevent Folk mot fossilmakta from disrupting the event?

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In the long run, if the eco-fascists succeed in their sabotage or if their demands are met, it would encourage similar demands and disruptions in the future. And not just in sports competitions, but in all kinds of events where visibility can be gained by disturbing large crowds or causing other forms of damage.

That’s why it would be ideal if Norwegian society ensured that the blackmailers had no opportunity to interpret the events during the World Championships to their advantage. In other words: 1. Prevent sabotage, 2. Ensure that any attempted disruption receives no more media coverage than a brief mention. 3. Above all, make sure that such actions are not portrayed in a positive light.

In short, it should be made clear that a so-called "offer you can’t refuse" has no place in modern times—and that resorting to such tactics will not advance any cause.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Relationship Between the Professor and Teemu Selänne
The activists sought excitement and a boost to their self-esteem in the Stockholm Diamond League
A young woman skiing in a swimsuit caused a controversy among women