As my esteemed reader knows, Europe has been undergoing rapid change since at least 2015. It is therefore interesting to see how this change is reflected in opinion polls.
For this reason, I decided to share a few images this Sunday showing the development of party support in different countries. The source of the images is Politico.eu’s Poll of Polls.
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Let us begin with Germany.
The chart clearly shows how, as recently as 20 years ago, Germany’s political landscape was dominated by two major parties, CDU/CSU and SPD. In 2013, a new, small, immigration-critical party, AfD, appeared on the scene. Over the course of the past roughly 13 years, its support has risen in waves to its current level of around 28 percent, making it the largest party in Europe’s largest economic area.
Another significant change is the division of the SPD’s traditional support base between the party and the Greens. At the moment, the Greens are even more popular than the old dominant party of the left.
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Next, France.
The chart beginning in 2017 shows the rise of the immigration-critical National Rally from a medium-sized party to France’s most popular political movement. Two other significant developments have been the consolidation of the previously fragmented left, which has made it the country’s second-largest political movement, and the gradual decline in support for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party.
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Third, the old world power, the United Kingdom.
The chart shows that the country’s two traditional major parties held their ground for a long time, but that the political landscape has since evolved into a three-party contest involving three medium-sized parties. At the moment, the Labour Party is in the lead, but the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage and having risen on the back of concerns about immigration, as well as the Conservatives, are breathing right down its neck. In recent months, however, support for the old major parties has been rising, while Reform UK’s upward trajectory appears to have peaked sometime last year.
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Overall, these party polls tell us a great deal about the enormous impact of immigration on the political landscape of Western Europe’s largest countries. The same has happened in Finland and Sweden — and Italy is governed by the immigration-critical Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. When we add to this the fact that modern mass immigration is not wanted in the countries of Eastern Europe either, it becomes clear that this is a pan-European view among the peoples of Europe.
This view, however, is reflected rather poorly in European politics. The European Union has failed to close its borders, and there is still an open route for harmful immigration in the form of the so-called right to apply for asylum. In addition, there are spontaneous waves of illegal immigration, most recently in Spain’s Ceuta.
It remains to be seen whether the changing views of EU citizens will affect European immigration policy. And if they do, how.
Will the right to asylum, which emerged in the aftermath of Nazi Germany’s atrocities, be abandoned because of excessive abuse? Will European states begin effectively returning the people who have flowed across their borders over the past ten years and who are unwilling to integrate into their societies? And even their descendants born within the EU?
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From the perspective of us ordinary citizens, the important thing is to lay the foundations for a better future for Europe by voting in elections for parties and candidates through whom the population and culture of our continent can preserve their vitality. The development I have described above shows that many Europeans have understood this, but also that not everyone has.
The future is, of course, unpredictable, so let this entry remain as one snapshot of the current situation. And at the same time, let it serve as a reminder to all of you — my esteemed readers — that ultimately, every democratic society becomes what the people living in it want it to become. At least when the people living in these countries understand what is in their own best interests and exercise their right to vote.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Families Flee Immigrant-Dominated Areas Over School Safety Concerns
Lessons for EU Citizens from the Ceuta Episode
Lessons from the Abdul Ballout Case
