A decision point has been reached regarding Russia's "shadow fleet" operating in the Baltic Sea. Estonia recently failed to stop one of the vessels after Russia offered it support from its air force. At the same time, two Portuguese F-16 fighter jets took to the skies from the nearby Ämari Air Base to support the Estonians—and in Finland, at least one F-18 fighter flew faster than the speed of sound for some reason, according to my own observation, although this has not been publicly acknowledged.
Fortunately, the incident did not escalate into an aerial battle, but it still shows that the risk of escalation over the Baltic Sea is very real. Thus, it is only a matter of time before some sort of confrontation occurs between Russia and NATO.
However, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has now announced: "A Russian ship from the 'shadow fleet' that is under sanctions carried out suspicious maneuvers near the power cable connecting Poland with Sweden. After a successful intervention by our military, the ship sailed off to one of the Russian ports. The ORP 'Heweliusz' is en route to the site of the incident."
It remains to be seen whether the successful interception of the vessel is a sign that even the Russians may have realized that protecting shadow fleet vessels with air support poses an enormous risk. And therefore, for now at least, they may have decided to refrain from such actions. At least, one can hope so.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
I fully agree with Mr. Professor, however :"Vestigia terrant" as was saying in an old folktale.
ReplyDeleteIn 1981, a Soviet a.k.a. Russian submarine "lost" it's way and drove on the rocks near a secret Swedish naval base.
In 1983 a Korean civil aircraft lost it's way and was shot down by a Soviet aircraft.
In 1986 Soviet engineers decided to make an experiment with a nuclear reactor and there was a chemical explosion in Tshernobyl.
So FAFO.