According to Finland's former ambassador to Washington, Mikko Hautala, Russia poses both an acute and a long-term threat to Finland. He also does not believe in a democratic future for Russia.
Instead, Putinism will continue in Russia even after the current leader, Vladimir Putin, leaves his position, which will likely happen within the next ten years. As a result, Finland’s eastern border will remain closed for years—if not decades—according to the ambassador.
For this reason, Finland should be prepared for a full-scale and prolonged war. At the same time, to deter Russia’s potential aggression, Finland must strengthen its military deterrence and create sufficient force to stop a possible Russian attack.
This would mean enhancing the current—already strong—army’s responsiveness and combat capability. For example, by creating a "semi-professional" reserve of approximately 50,000 soldiers who train annually and are well-armed, expanding the military fortifications along the eastern border, and significantly increasing defense spending. Additionally, Finland’s economy must remain stable, and the country's domestic defense industry should be developed into as significant an exporter as possible to ensure it can produce sufficient arms for the military in a crisis.
Ambassador Hautala also estimates that Russia’s military industry and economy will be able to continue producing enough military material to compensate for the losses in Ukraine. Nor does he believe that the Russian people will rise against the war, despite the heavy casualties.
This also applies to those who do not necessarily support the war, as even they do not accept defeat or the reparations for the war’s destruction. According to Hautala, "for the majority of Russians, taking responsibility for the war is almost impossible... In reality, public opinion supports the war of aggression."
The ambassador also reminds us that completely defeating a nuclear power is not possible. On the other hand, using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be highly risky, even if Zelensky's army—with Western support—were to gain the upper hand in the war against Russia.
The views expressed above are serious and should be considered by decision-makers in Finland and other countries. Especially, it should be clear in all situations that neither Vladimir Putin nor the Russians, in general, should be given the impression that Russia could win a war against the Western world. Therefore, Western countries must remain united against the threat it poses—especially now, in Ukraine.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine
Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate
