To Be or Not to Be Woke – A Question of Worldview and Mental Health

In Finland’s largest daily newspaper there was an article that discussed right-wing and left-wing “wokeness.” According to the interviewed specialist researcher from the University of Turku, Oskari Lehtinen, right-wing woke activists (which, to be honest, I had never heard of before) were united by the views that their country’s population is being deliberately replaced, society discriminates against white people, a good ruler breaks rules in order to safeguard national interests, conservative values should determine which forms of expression are permitted and which are forbidden, and ordinary people know better what is good for the country than educated experts.

Left-wing woke activists, in turn, were united by views according to which income differences between white and non-white people are explained mainly by racism, trans women should be allowed to compete in women’s sports categories, society should have more safe spaces, racism is more of a structural phenomenon than something visible in individuals’ actions, and focusing on skin color is generally necessary for advancing human rights.

The newspaper article included a link to a test from a few years ago that allowed you to measure your own level of wokeness. As a curious person, I took it, and my result was 3/30 points along with the comment that “you are not very woke.” This did not surprise me.

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In connection with that test, some interesting things were reported. One of them—though less surprising—was that among university students, the strongest woke attitudes were found in the humanities and social sciences as well as psychology. Among students, wokeness was least common among those studying the natural sciences, while among teachers the least enamored with this ideology were business scholars.

It was also not a surprise to me personally that people who hold a woke worldview are more depressed and anxious than others. In addition, they are less happy than others. According to the woke researcher, however, this is a correlation rather than a cause-and-effect relationship, so we do not know whether wokeness leads to mental health problems or vice versa.

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It would be great if Lehtinen’s future research were to produce information about the causal relationship between a woke worldview and mental health, as that would be quite useful. It is clear that if wokeness produces mental health problems such as depression and anxiety and, in addition, reduces people’s happiness, that would be a justified reason to stop presenting this ideology in a positive light in media.

If, on the other hand, further research were to show that the causal relationship runs the other way—that is, that wokeness is a way of identifying people suffering from mental health problems—then its supporters could be easily identified and directed to mental health services, and, if necessary, provided with psychiatric support that would help them live happier lives than they do now.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender identity and the future of Finnishness
Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts

The original blogpost in Finnish: 
Tieteellistä tietoa wokelluksesta

What’s Next, Iran?

In public discussion, surprisingly little attention has been paid to what would happen if Iran’s Islamist regime were to collapse as a result of the ongoing uprising of its own citizens. Would power be taken—at least temporarily—by the son of the late shah, who ruled the country dictatorially, Reza Pahlavi? And if so, would he, as he has promised, organize free elections, allowing Iranians to establish a democratic system of government? Or would he instead follow in his father’s footsteps, becoming an undemocratic but Western-aligned leader?

Or would the country descend into civil war, with various political groups engaging in armed conflict with one another—an outcome determined partly by Iranians themselves, but also by the amount of support the different sides receive from rival great powers? That is, from Trump’s United States and Xi’s China—but hardly from Russia, bogged down in its own “special operation,” or from a Europe that is disarrayed in every respect.

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Of course, it would be wonderful if Iranians were able, in free elections, to choose an enlightened father of the nation under whose leadership a modern constitution would be created and, on that basis, the rest of the legal system reformed as well. At the same time, religion would be defined as a private matter for each individual, as has been done, for example, here under the North Star.

The question, however, is whether this is what all Iranians actually want. Or do they have different aspirations? Or might the great powers—or neighboring countries, for that matter—have their own spoons in the pot, stirring it in such a way as to push Iranians from a religious dystopia into a secular tyranny?

Unless, of course, the current Islamist regime manages after all to retain its position and continues at the helm of the ship of state, using even harsher methods than before to subjugate its citizens. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?
Finnish Ex-Military Chief: U.S. Likely Halted Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Mitä seuraavaksi, Iran?

Recent Arctic Sea Ice Decline Is Not Accelerating

It is time to return to examining the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and the average surface area of northern polar ice in September of the previous year. I therefore once again conducted a regression analysis of the relationship between these two variables—over the period from 1979 to 2025—using carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa and ice area data from the NSIDC.

Since 2018 (using data from 2017), the basic idea underlying the analysis I have carried out annually is derived from the following premises: (1) according to the climate change hypothesis, climate change is an accelerating process; (2) models predict that temperature increases in the Arctic will be faster than in the rest of the globe; and (3) changes in polar ice area serve as a good proxy for temperature changes in the northernmost parts of the Earth.

In the figure below, the years marked in blue indicate those starting points from which annual measurements have demonstrated the existence of such a relationship according to the criterion I use (P < 0.01 in two consecutive years). The height of the bars shows how many years after that starting point this statistical significance was achieved.

The years marked in red are those for which no such statistical significance has been found. In these cases, the height of the bars indicates the number of years available for the analysis.

As my esteemed reader notes, during the early years of the time series the minimum extent of polar ice decreased in such a way that—according to the regression analysis—it exhibited a clear statistical cause-and-effect relationship with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Moreover, this relationship strengthened almost year by year up to the time series beginning in 2001.

After that, however, a change occurred: although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continued to rise steadily, the change in ice area did not reach statistical significance until last year. At that point, the observational series beginning in 2002 also became statistically significant, but only on the basis of an observational record twice as long as that required for the series beginning in the previous year.

This year, what was new was that the time series beginning in 2003 also reached statistical significance. It can therefore be concluded that northern sea ice has indeed melted in a statistically significant manner in recent years as well, but that the process—at least as measured by its annual minimum extent—has not been accelerating, as climate models have predicted.

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In this respect, it is also interesting that although Arctic sea ice reached a larger minimum extent this year than in six other years (2007, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2003, and 2024), it melted rapidly in October, November, and December, and its surface area reached the smallest December average in the measurement record last month. This is shown in the figure below (the early part of which admittedly raises questions, but for which I am unable to provide an explanation).

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting
Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records
Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Pohjoinen merijää sulaa sittenkin

Venezuela, Antonio Guterres and the Nature of Great Powers

The United States removed Venezuela’s socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro from power and transported him to the United States to await trial. There, the deposed tyrant will be charged, among other things, with narco-terrorism and the possession of machine guns and other weapons of destruction against the United States.

In Venezuela, power was transferred to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and there are reportedly no longer any American soldiers in the country. Hopefully, the country’s new leader understands the situation and moves swiftly to arrange honest elections.

In those elections, whoever the majority of the Venezuelan people express their support for should win. And whether that is last year’s Nobel Prize winner María Corina Machado or someone else, may that person receive American support in restoring the country to democratic governance, rebuilding its economy on market-based principles, and orienting its foreign policy toward Western democracies instead of China.

Under Maduro, however, Venezuela has accumulated many serious problems. These include an economic collapse over the course of the 21st century, increased drug-related crime, and now—after the operation just carried out—possible claims by Trump on the country’s oil reserves. For Venezuelans, it is therefore crucial to find solutions to all of these issues that are effective and that enjoy public support.

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In this context, it is worth noting the incomprehensible reaction of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to the events. Instead of expressing satisfaction at the fall of a dictator, he saw fit to be deeply concerned about the U.S. strike on Venezuela, because it does not respect international law.

Did this creep placed at the head of the world organization really imagine that Maduro’s regime did?

The silver lining is that the UN has no real means to influence the Venezuelan case, nor does there appear to be support in Western countries for Guterres’s absurd “concern” or for Maduro’s regime. And even if there were, Donald Trump would hardly care about it any more than about the shit-flies tormenting cattle on American ranches.

All in all, the future of Venezuelans looks—despite Guterres—reasonably bright, at least compared to a few days ago. Of course, dismantling the misery caused by a long-standing socialist dictatorship will take time, but with determined effort the people can get what they deserve.

For now, however, we do not know what that will mean. And so we can only wait to see what the Venezuelans themselves want—once the Trump administration first restores to them the right to decide on their own affairs.

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Finally, it should be noted that some have viewed the transfer of power in Venezuela as some kind of grand conspiracy in which the United States, China, and Russia seek to divide the world among themselves. 

I do admit that in this case certain features of such a scenario can be discerned, but there is nothing fundamentally new about it. Great powers have always sought to maximize their influence—sometimes more openly and sometimes more covertly, but always using the means they have considered most effective at the time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Elections in Venezuela Do Not Offer Reason for Optimism
Does China prove the superiority of market economy?
Lessons from Venezuela

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Maduron kausi loppu, eikä sen perään jäänyt haikailemaan kuin YK:n Antonio Guterrez

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

A ship that had been dragging its anchor – Fitburg – damaged a cable running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland yesterday. The Finnish Border Guard acted with its customary efficiency, documented the dangling anchor with photographs, and took the vessel into custody.

The case will next proceed to a more detailed investigation and, in due course, undoubtedly to court. This in itself sounds good, but I would like to draw your attention, dear readers, to what happened last October.

At that time, the Helsinki District Court announced that it would not examine the charges – in a similar case – against the vessel Eagle S, which belongs to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, nor the compensation claims based on those charges. The court held that Finland’s Criminal Code could not be applied to the case.

The matter was commented on at the time by Member of Parliament Jarno Limnéll (National Coalition Party), who stated that “clearer legislation and international agreements are needed that give states the ability to deal with acts of this kind also in exclusive economic zones and international waters.” However, no such measures have emerged during the past couple of months.

For this reason, it seems clear to me that the Fitburg incident – quite evidently a cable sabotage operation ordered by Russia – is, logically speaking, a consequence of the Helsinki District Court’s decision and the shortcomings of international legislation. It is obvious that if breaking cables carries no consequences, Putin’s administration can continue sabotaging them without concern.

It is therefore easy to predict that cables running along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea will continue to be damaged – so to speak, “by accident” – in the future. And this will likely continue until the necessary provisions are enacted in international law, despite the expected opposition from Russia and its proxies.

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If one wishes to see something positive in the Fitburg case, it is undoubtedly the efficiency of the actions taken by the Finnish authorities. The cable damage was investigated quickly, and the perpetrator was also stopped.

Because of the legislative problem mentioned above, the only sanction available against the ship’s owner and/or crew will likely be to look for deficiencies in the vessel’s condition, thereby delaying its departure. In this way, the crew would at least be forced to loiter for a while off the coast of Kirkkonummi.

It would be interesting to know whether the shipowner and/or its crew have made an agreement with Vladimir Putin’s administration regarding compensation for those days in rubles or in some stronger currency. The exchange rate of the ruble has recently been in a decline reminiscent of that famous cow’s tail, so the value of days compensated in Russian currency decreases over time.

In any case, any deficiencies found on the vessel must be investigated before it is allowed to leave Finnish territorial waters. And, of course, even the smallest faults discovered on the ship should be required to be carefully repaired before departure clearance is granted – to the vessel and its crew alike.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö kannusti Fitburgin kaapelisabotaasiin