Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine led to some rather interesting perspectives, as Donald Trump called for an end to the war along the current front lines — and Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to accept the idea. According to the latter, “we must stop where we are — he is right, the President is right.”

At the same time, Trump announced that he was not ready to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which could be used to destroy Russian military and infrastructure targets deep inside the country. Not, at least, before he meets with Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Before the meeting, Zelenskyy stated that security guarantees are the most important issue for Ukraine. However, Finnish media, the BBC, USA Today, and CBS did not report on what the presidents discussed regarding those guarantees. According to Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, support for Ukraine remains strong and “includes military and economic assistance, security guarantees, a ceasefire, and a peace process.”

It therefore remains to be seen how Putin will respond in Hungary to a peace initiative that he could, if he wished, present to his people as some kind of victory. Yet compared with his previous statements, such an outcome would clearly be a failure — one that has already resulted in more than a million Russians being killed or disabled.

Thus, peace along the current front lines would be an obvious risk for Putin, since it is impossible to predict in advance which narrative — victory or failure — would ultimately prevail in the minds of Russians. And what might follow from that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

Are Coral Reefs Doomed Within the Next Few Years?

A recent science news report stated that, according to a study signed by 160 researchers, the destruction of coral reefs is now almost certainly irreversible. The report says that most coral reefs will die once global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

At present, the climate has warmed by 1.4 degrees, according to scientists, which means that the temperature leading to the irreversible collapse of reefs is expected to be reached within the next few years. When that happens, for example, the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica are likely to collapse.

And that’s not all — according to the lead author of the report, Tim Lenton, one of the tipping points involves the collapse of existing ocean currents, which would have catastrophic consequences. If this were to occur in the ocean circulation system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it would disrupt the global climate and, among other effects, cool the winters of Finland and the rest of Europe.

* * *

I wanted to highlight this topic because the report provides a clear prediction — one that will be fascinating, if admittedly frightening, to follow in the coming years. It’s especially intriguing because the timeframe mentioned is “in the next few years,” which to my ears sounds more like less than ten years rather than more. At the very least, it doesn’t imply waiting several decades, as shown by the chart published a couple of years ago by the University of Berkeley, which I’ve copied below.

So, I’ll try to remember to follow this issue in the coming years — and to report on it here in this blog, unless I become too senile before the coral reef catastrophe actually happens.

* * *

Before that, however, it’s worth recalling a study from last year which found that coral reef restoration can accelerate the recovery of coral cover and carbonate production so rapidly that the reefs’ net carbonate budgets resemble those of healthy reefs within just four years. And this occurs under the current climate, which is already 1.4 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

And that’s not all — this year another study was published showing that there are also coral reefs that are recovering. At least some can be found in the Chagos Archipelago, where coral cover on both the fore-reef and the lagoon increased by 59–67% after several years of bleaching.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this change of direction is only temporary — or whether it will prove to be permanent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuhoutuvatko koralliriutat lähivuosina?

English or Finnish — That’s the Question

I have been considering returning this blog to its original purpose — to publish here only English translations of the most significant entries from my Finnish-language blog, edited when necessary to take into account an international readership.

There are three reasons behind this consideration. The first is lack of time, as maintaining two blogs takes up a large part of my free time. The second is that I suspect most readers of the English-language blog are in fact Finns, who can therefore also read my Finnish posts. Thus, posting less frequently in English might allow me to write Finnish entries more often than I do now.

For this reason, I ask you — my dear readers — to indicate on the discussion forum below, in a single word, whether you prefer to read the entries in Finnish or in English. Based on your comments, I will make my final decision about the future of this blog.

Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?

Some Ukrainians have fled the war to other countries. As a result, there are also people in Finland who have escaped Russia’s invasion, and they have generally been well received. On the other hand, finding employment has been difficult: only about 30 percent of Ukrainians have jobs, while the rest depend on social security.

According to a recent survey, however, the majority of Ukrainians intend to stay in Finland even if the war raging in their homeland were to end. This group makes up about 70 percent of all Ukrainians in the country.

At the same time, Finland has tightened its immigration policy, so it remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians currently in the country once peace returns and the need for humanitarian protection ends. In a way, Finland does need a solid workforce in the long term due to its low birth rate, even though unemployment currently affects as much as ten percent of the national labor force.

It should also be noted that the native population’s attitude toward Ukrainians is significantly more positive than toward many other groups who have arrived on humanitarian grounds. Likewise, it is clear that their readiness to earn a living through work is on a completely different level compared to those coming from developing countries.

In that sense, it would be reasonable for Finland to consider its immigration policy also from the perspective of the receiving society and to favor the settlement of Ukrainians over more problematic groups of newcomers. However, such arrangements face an obstacle in the form of so-called non-discrimination requirements—raised almost certainly by the political left—which aim to prevent immigration policy from taking advantage of recognized differences between population groups.

It therefore remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians who have settled in Finland—and, along with that, whether Finns are capable of making sensible immigration policy or whether moral posturing will once again take precedence.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland to Tighten Citizenship Requirements Further
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
A Different Kind of Christmas

Finland and the U.S. to Launch Icebreaker Cooperation

President Alexander Stubb of Finland visits the White House today together with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. There, he will sign a memorandum of understanding with President Donald Trump concerning cooperation on icebreaker technology.

This document lays the foundation for commercial agreements between the U.S. Coast Guard and Finnish companies. It is also the result of prior negotiations between the U.S. administration and Finnish shipbuilders.

The cooperation is based on the fact that Finnish expertise in icebreaker technology is unparalleled anywhere in the world — and that is why the Americans trust it.

Icebreakers are not ordinary ships; they represent a highly specialized technology mastered only within the Finnish “icebreaker ecosystem”, where the coordinated expertise of numerous companies comes together. In other words, the overall know-how is not the private property of any single company.

For this same reason, Finland’s core icebreaker expertise cannot simply be transferred abroad, even though the agreement includes an option for part of the shipbuilding work to be carried out in the United States. However, this would mainly involve the final outfitting of the icebreakers — work that does not significantly differ from any other type of ship construction.

In Finland, some concern has been expressed that these new deals might lead to the loss of icebreaker know-how from the country. For the reasons mentioned above, I do not share this concern. However, I do see great value in the fact that the construction of these vessels will also create jobs for American companies.

Such cooperation, if successful, could lead to a long-term partnership between Finnish and American companies — and thereby, in President Stubb’s words, “benefit both Finland and the United States.” After all, each icebreaker costs around two billion euros, so there’s a significant share for everyone involved.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes

According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine has carried out a drone strike more than 2,000 kilometers beyond its border. The target was an oil refinery in Tyumen, Russia, which was reportedly damaged in the attack.

Regardless of the extent of the damage, the incident is significant in that it demonstrates that Russian infrastructure is increasingly within Ukraine’s reach. Consequently, Russia’s war economy is becoming ever more vulnerable — just as Vladimir Putin turns 73.

For example, fuel shortages in many regions of Russia are already severe and are making civilian life difficult. One can only imagine how the situation will unfold in the coming months, with homes left unheated as temperatures drop to –20 or even –30 degrees Celsius.

For this reason, there now appears to be considerable potential in the air for an uprising to ignite. And this seems enough for Putin to be paying very close attention to his own security.

This is underlined by reports that even Vyacheslav Leontyev, the 87-year-old former publisher of Pravda, the leading newspaper of the Soviet Union, is said to have fallen from the window of his fifth-floor apartment in western Moscow. The man is believed to have been well informed about the secret wealth of Russia’s elite — undoubtedly including Putin himself — the existence of which is unlikely to provide much comfort to ordinary Russians facing the coming winter’s cold.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Two Recent Life-Threatening Crimes in Finland

A recent news report stated that a 15-year-old student at a Finnish school had stabbed another student of the same age. According to the police, the perpetrator is currently at large, but his identity is known.

No description of the attacker has been released in the news reports, so I looked into what kind of school the incident took place in. The school is located in Lahti, a city of about 120,000 residents roughly an hour’s drive from Helsinki.

According to an education website, the school serves not only degree-preparatory students but also lower secondary students in grades 7–9, students in flexible basic education, and those in preparatory education for immigrants. The school has a total of about 660 students and offers specialized instruction in sports and STEM subjects.

Salpausselkä Comprehensive School was founded in 1957, and an extensive renovation was completed in 2017. The facilities are modern and multipurpose. There are about 60 teachers, teaching assistants, and other staff members in total. The school engages in international cooperation with partner schools abroad and maintains broad partnerships with local companies.

The aforementioned degree-preparatory program is intended for learners who do not yet have a secondary qualification and who, for one reason or another, need preparatory training — in practice, this means immigrants or Finnish students who have dropped out of school.

It remains to be seen when the police will apprehend the attacker — and what information about them will eventually be made public.

* * *

The school stabbing in Lahti is not the only recent act of violence making headlines. Yesterday, in Helsinki, a 20-year-old young man reportedly attempted to shoot a 16-year-old boy he knew.

According to a police spokesperson, “extensive investigative measures have been carried out, through which we have been able to clarify further details about the course of events. Based on this information, I consider that the suspected act meets the criteria for attempted murder.”

It thus appears that Finland may be rapidly following what is often referred to as “the Swedish path” — marked by a sharp increase in violent crimes connected to the country’s demographic changes in recent decades, something Swedish authorities have been warning their Finnish counterparts about for years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Attitudes Toward Immigrants Are a Problem in Schools
678 Bomb Attacks in Six Months: Netherlands Faces Alarming Trend
Burning a Man Alive Led to Life Imprisonment

Finland’s Foreign Minister Explained Why the States That Have Recognized Palestine Are Well-Meaning Fools

Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians are set to begin in Cairo, Egypt. The starting points are promising, as a representative of the extremist group Hamas assures that the organization seeks to reach an agreement to end the war in Gaza.

However, right at the outset, the organization has demanded that Israel immediately cease all military operations in Gaza if it wants to reach an agreement — a stance that has hardly helped build trust in the terrorists. On the positive side, Hamas has also expressed its own willingness to stop fighting, provided Israel does the same.

In other words, the situation remains tense, and there is no certainty about the outcome. Therefore, the rest of the world should aim to help facilitate the formation of an agreement.

* * *

Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (National Coalition Party) has stated that she hopes a ceasefire can be implemented immediately, as the release of hostages has been awaited for nearly two years. This, she says, would hopefully also allow sufficient humanitarian aid to reach Gaza and help calm the situation across the region.

According to Valtonen, Finland’s position is that Hamas must be disarmed. In her words, “the point now is that disarmament simply must be achieved. We cannot accept any kind of terrorist organization at the helm of any territory — and especially not of a future state.”

She also emphasized that “we support the two-state model. That in itself means that the State of Palestine will be recognized. But this requires that the Palestinian administration be a civilian government committed to nonviolence and to ensuring security for Israel, neighboring countries, and its own people.”

In other words, it is not yet sensible to recognize the State of Palestine; instead, the promise of independence should be used as an incentive to achieve a positive outcome in the peace negotiations. Unfortunately, most of the world’s countries have already, in their folly, played that card.

Thus, their actions — the premature recognition of Palestine — can well be described as the work of well-meaning fools, which will hopefully not have too great an impact on the outcome of the negotiations. However, should that happen, it would be wise to learn from it when resolving future crises.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal
Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law

Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal

The terrorists of Hamas have accepted part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace proposal. First, they are ready to release their remaining hostages, and second, they agree to relinquish power in Gaza – though only in favor of an independent Palestinian leadership.

As a result, Israel has announced that it will scale back its operations in Gaza to a “minimum,” conducting only defensive missions in the area – something Trump himself encouraged them to do. Thus, with their statement, Hamas fighters have at least gained a brief respite.

At the same time, it is clear that Hamas has not committed to all parts of Trump’s peace plan. One particularly crucial element is the disarmament – or demilitarization – of this terrorist organization.

It remains to be seen how the situation in Gaza and the entire Holy Land will develop from here. In other words, will Hamas manage to evade the demands placed upon it – and if not, will hostilities with Israel resume immediately after the release of the hostages?

This also gives Hamas some room to maneuver; it might seek to delay the handover of hostages in order to reorganize and strengthen its military operations. And if that happens, one must ask: at what point will Israel and Trump lose their patience?

All in all, it would of course be best if Hamas accepted all the terms of the agreement. On the other hand, the most important thing for everyone – not least for ordinary Palestinians in Gaza – would be Hamas’s disarmament, which would in any case put an end to the fighting in the region.

However, I suspect that this is the last condition on Trump’s list that Hamas would ever agree to – if it agrees at all. And therefore, it remains to be seen whether this morning’s optimism will turn out to be merely an illusion, one that shatters as soon as we return to Gaza’s grim reality and the distorted worldview of the terrorists who sustain it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?

Finland detained a vessel named Eagle S, which had dragged its anchor across the seabed and damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. The investigation took some time, after which the evidence was submitted to a Finnish district court, i.e., the lowest judicial instance.

Instead of assessing the criminal liability of the act and delivering a verdict to those found guilty, the district court ruled that it had no jurisdiction to decide in such a criminal case. Therefore, the matter should be dealt with either in the courts of the crew’s home countries or in the courts of the flag state of the Eagle S. In other words, the case would fall under the jurisdiction of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India.

However, Professor Ulla Tapaninen, a maritime transport expert at Tallinn University of Technology, has noted that “district courts often prefer to move complex cases up to higher judicial levels.” For this reason, she argues it is reasonable that the Eagle S case would be escalated from the district court to the court of appeal, which is one step higher in the judicial hierarchy.

In other words, the Finnish professor at the Estonian university assumes that the legal proceedings will continue in Finland. This raises the question: if that happens, will the court of appeal consider itself competent—contrary to the district court’s conclusion—to convict the crew of the Eagle S?

And if that is the case, who will bear the costs? The Finnish taxpayer, who has already been burdened with bills amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros?

And what would happen after such a farce? Would the case then be transferred to the courts of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India—or would the legal consequences of the damage caused by the Eagle S to the submarine cables ultimately remain unaddressed?

And furthermore, if that is the case, does it mean that in the future the submarine cables running along the seabed of the Baltic Sea and other seas may be cut at will and without consequences?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Just Another Case of Multiculturality in Manchester, UK

A terrorist attack has been carried out at a synagogue in Manchester, UK. The suspected perpetrator was a bald man with a big black beard.

There is nothing particularly unusual about the case, since recent years have shown that as multiculturalism increases, the number of terrorist incidents has also risen throughout Europe. The only strange thing is that the majority of the native population in each country seems to accept the situation without much protest.

That is why it will be interesting to see what the future of an increasingly multicultural Europe will look like. At this stage, one can only hope for the best, but fear the worst. 

And vote in elections to ensure that Europe, despite everything, will remain European—that is, composed of democratic states that respect human rights, and where the violence caused by multiculturalism can somehow be rooted out. If it cannot be achieved by good means, then other measures must be used—measures that will suffice.

It seems this is also the way of thinking in Britain, where Reform UK has risen to become by far the most popular party. One can only hope that if—and when—it wins the next parliamentary elections, it will use the mandate it receives from the people effectively. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians
Multiple Stabbings Reported in Tampere, Finland
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point

Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine has sought to undermine Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” by bringing the war into Russians’ homes, namely by destroying infrastructure. As a result, there are occasional shortages of fuel for cars, and home heating does not always function.

The Ukrainians’ tactic seems sound in itself, but Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party), former Chief of Intelligence at the Finnish Defence Command and now a Member of the European Parliament, reminded of one problem. According to him, “in a dictatorship, the risk of going out into the streets is great, because if you are not shot, you will spend decades in a prison camp.”

For this reason, Russians can endure the kind of misery that would lead to massive riots in Western countries. The choice is easy, since—as Toveri put it—“the alternative is a bullet in the forehead.”

It remains to be seen what the winter will bring. In the best-case scenario, heating failures and cold homes will eventually lead to a popular uprising and the collapse of Putin’s regime—along with peace for Ukraine. In the worst case, Russians will direct their anger toward Ukraine, and the people will unite more firmly than ever behind Putin’s “special operation.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) stated today that Finland is ready to recognize an independent Palestine under certain conditions. First of all, the two-state solution must meet both the security needs of Israelis and Palestinians, as well as Palestine’s aspirations for statehood and self-determination. Palestine’s commitment to peaceful coexistence is a central prerequisite for recognition.

In concrete terms, according to Orpo, this means that Hamas or any other group aiming to destroy Israel can have no role in Palestine’s governance or in building its future. It means that Finland will not recognize Palestinian independence unless Palestine is committed to releasing Hamas’s hostages, disarming Hamas, and demilitarizing the Palestinian state. In addition, Palestine must advance its own political reforms.

It remains to be seen when the Palestinians will meet the conditions set by Finland — and by what means Finns will be convinced that recognition is timely. I won’t be holding my breath.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?
When Should We Recognize the Independence of Palestine?

Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. According to the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, there are no prohibited areas.

So now is a good time to guess where Ukraine will strike first. Could the target even be the Kremlin in Moscow? Or some distant, particularly significant arms factory or oil refinery? Or perhaps St. Petersburg — the former capital of the Russian tsars — which is actually quite close to Finland?

If I had to bet, I’d put my money on a fairly close target: namely the Crimean Bridge, the destruction of which would have major strategic significance in the ongoing war.

I don’t have any inside information, so after writing this I’ll be waiting eagerly for tomorrow’s news from Ukraine. Hopefully it will be good.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?

Last night, Russia struck with great force against civilians in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. It remains to be seen, however, how this will affect U.S. President Donald Trump.

I ask this because President Trump has recently seemed, at long last, to have grown weary of Vladimir Putin and his army’s actions in Ukraine. And now there has been a large-scale attack against Ukrainian civilians – which in itself constitutes a war crime.

For my part, however, I doubt that Trump is still a man capable of putting Putin in his place – that is, of showing Russia to be nothing more than a second-rate vassal state to China. Nor do I think he is the man who could end a war that has already claimed 1,1 million Russian lives, a war which Moscow’s elite continues only to preserve its own grip on power.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?
Donald Trump’s Meeting With Vladimir Putin: The Advice He Needs
Oily Trap for Putin

Two Men Sentenced for Raping Underage Girls

Huge cruise ships operate between Finland and Sweden, serving not only as a means of transportation but also as venues for leisure and entertainment. In other words, they are not just vehicles but massive entertainment centers.

A recent news report states that prison sentences have been handed down as a result of rapes of underage girls that took place on such a ship. Farid Asghar, now 37, was sentenced to 1 year and 2 months in prison for sexual abuse of a child. 

Asghar was also sentenced to 6 years and 6 months in prison for aggravated child rape and aggravated rape committed in a remote parking lot. Altogether, he was sentenced to 7 years and 8 months in prison for sexual offenses. His friend Mujtaba Adam Khan, now 40, was sentenced to 3 years and 7 months in prison.  

As the first names of the convicted indicate, both men are immigrants who came to Finland as humanitarian refugees from developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Why Is the Case of Issam Rafil, Convicted of a Sexual Offense in Finland, Important for Britain?

Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing

The International Ski Federation (FIS) has decided to test the gender of women participating in competitions. According to its president, Johan Eliasch, “this policy is the cornerstone of our commitment to protect women’s sport, and we are convinced that there is only one fair and transparent way to do that: by relying on science and biological facts.”

I’m eagerly waiting to see whether this statement sparks protests among so-called woke people, who are often heard claiming that humans have a vast number of different genders. Eliasch’s comment, however, seems to rest on the assumption that there are only two: male and female, determined by genes.

On the other hand—in my understanding—the overwhelming majority of people do recognize that while there may be numerous gender identities experienced by individuals, sex is ultimately a fact tied to reproduction. Those who are capable of fathering children are men, and those who are capable of giving birth are women. Everyone else represents exceptions to this rule, not distinct sexes.

As for the issue itself, it should simply be said that the FIS decision is exactly right for women’s sports, since hardly any reasonable spectator would want to see the same kind of farce on the ski tracks as was witnessed in the boxing rings at the Paris Olympics, where male violence against women was legalized and broadcast live on TV.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
UK Supreme Court Distinguishes Between the Rights of Women and Trans Women
Finnish Trans Woman Speaks Out on Transgender Rights in Sports

Is Finnish Broadcasting Company Yle Using Taxpayer Money to Mislead?

In Finland, there is a taxpayer-funded media company – Yleisradio often shortened as Yle – whose purpose is to produce truthful reporting. Unfortunately, the company does not always seem to grasp this fact; instead, its programming often clearly reflects the journalists’ own – green-leftist – political views.

At worst, this manifests itself in perspectives favoring the political left and even in what appears to be the deliberate misleading of the audience. A good example of this was provided by Yle’s recent article titled “Report: Finland has succeeded well in integrating immigrants, only Sweden ahead.”

In reality, according to the article itself, the report in question did not actually address immigrant integration, but rather focused mainly on financial and other support directed at them, as well as, for example, opportunities for newcomers to participate in society. In other words, Finland has not necessarily succeeded in integrating immigrants; instead, it has provided the second most services. This assessment did not include any evaluation of the actual outcome – that is, the success of integration.

Therefore – my dear readers – each of you may consider for yourselves whether the generous funding of Yleisradio with Finnish taxpayers’ money is truly justified. Or is it rather a case of misuse of people’s money?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
An Economist’s Fact-Based Response to Polarizing Tax Claims
Acts of Vandalism Against a Political Party
Orwellian Big Brother monitors journalists of Finland's Public Broadcasting Company Yle

Explosion in Oslo, Norway

It is well known that Swedish society has changed as a result of immigration—from an idyllic "people’s home" into a battlefield of criminal gangs. According to recent news, the same development now appears to be taking place in Norway.

Last night in the capital, Oslo, an explosion occurred. Afterwards, police detonated a hand grenade found at the scene and arrested three underage youths. The incident was linked to a conflict between criminal gangs.

According to Wikipedia, as of 1 January 2024, Norway had 931,081 residents who were immigrants, representing 16.8% of the country’s total population of approximately 5.54 million. In addition, 221,459 people (4.0%) were born in Norway to two foreign-born parents, bringing the total population with an immigrant background to 1,152,540, or 20.8% of the population. The largest immigrant groups by country of birth were Poland (109,654), Ukraine (65,566), Lithuania (42,733), Syria (38,708), Sweden (36,612), Somalia (27,665), Germany (26,860), Eritrea (25,137), the Philippines (24,718) and Iraq (23,603).

It remains to be seen which of these groups, if any, are connected to the Oslo explosions. My own suspicion, however, is that it is not among the three largest immigrant-background groups, but rather involves criminals originating from the Middle East or Africa. That, however, remains to be seen—provided that the media chooses to publish the information.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
Nordic Police Announce: Spread of Gang Violence Cannot Be Stopped
Nordic Nations Unite Against the Growing Threat of Cross-Border Organized Crime

Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace

On Monday evening, the airports of the capitals of Norway and Denmark – Oslo and Kopenhagen, respectively – were temporarily closed due to drones being flown nearby. It is clear that the drones were not flown by accident, but deliberately. Therefore, it was not hobbyists, but some actor or actors who wanted to cause disturbances.

Personally, I suspect it was the same party that shortly before had flown its fighter jets into Estonian airspace and its drones into Polish airspace. That is why this incident must be taken very seriously.

* * *

Norway also announced today that Russia has violated its airspace three times during the spring and summer. Two of the aircraft that entered the airspace without authorization were fighter jets, while the third was a small transport or passenger plane, mainly operated by Aeroflot.

According to Norway’s foreign minister, “if Russia deliberately challenges the airspace of multiple countries, this is extremely serious.” This is a view worth sharing, but at the same time it should be noted that even the most temperate cat may scratch if provoked enough – and it would be highly irresponsible if the aforementioned party were to cross NATO countries’ threshold of irritation.  

* * *

Today, information was published in Finland about how the country has prepared for the appearance of unauthorized aircraft crossing the border. Such an event cannot go unnoticed, as Finnish airspace is monitored by radar around the clock, and practically all incoming flying objects near Finland’s borders are detected well in advance.

If there is a risk that a device approaching the border might enter Finnish airspace without permission, Finnish fighter jets are dispatched. As the violations of Estonian airspace have shown, this does not take long. For example, Finnish jets arrived faster than the Italian ones, which took off from Estonia itself.

If Finnish airspace is actually violated, radio contact is first attempted with the intruding aircraft, if possible. If that fails, a fighter jet flies alongside the foreign aircraft to get the pilot’s attention, for example by rocking its wings. In addition, the intruder can be warned by firing flares, which demonstrates readiness to use weapons and makes clear that the fighter is armed.

In peacetime, a manned aircraft is only fired upon if authorization is given by the national leadership. However, this does not need to be awaited if a Finnish fighter itself comes under fire, or if the intruding aircraft uses its weapons against another Finnish target. In such cases, the pilot has the right to destroy the aircraft that has crossed the border at their own discretion.

Unmanned aerial vehicles, however, are always shot down immediately if they cross into Finnish airspace. Therefore, long drone flights from across the border, such as those seen in Poland, are not possible in Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Palestine’s Statehood and International Law

Many European states have recognized or are in the process of recognizing the State of Palestine. Finland is not among these countries but is instead waiting to see how the situation develops, together with, among others, the USA, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

This is reasonable in the sense that, from the perspective of international law, the existence of a state requires four basic elements – a permanent population, clearly defined borders, a functioning government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. Of these conditions, especially the second, third, and fourth are not met, so a rational person would sooner question the logic of the states that have recognized Palestine than that of the states that have chosen to wait.

Therefore, Palestine should be recognized as a state only when – or if – it one day fulfills all four conditions. In the meantime, every country – regardless of its stance on recognizing Palestine – can act in support of a just peace between Jews and Arabs living in the region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?
An Unexpected Endorsement of Professor’s Views
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace

Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power

According to the Finnish Defence Forces Commander Janne Jaakkola, “three MiG aircraft would not stand a chance against F-35 fighters, JAS Gripens or FA-18s. In that sense, there was no military threat. A rapid kinetic response would have been a mistake.”

The statement referred to MiG-31 fighters that had entered Estonian airspace, and it is understandable insofar as this aircraft type is far from new: production began back in 1979, and the first planes were delivered to the Soviet military as early as 1982. In that respect, it is rather amusing that such aircraft are still part of Putin’s active air force inventory.

* * *

The most recent MiG fighter is known as the MiG-35, which, according to its manufacturer, belongs to the so-called fifth generation of fighters, featuring stealth characteristics designed to make radar detection more difficult. However, the aircraft deployed in the war in Ukraine have—at least according to Western sources—been said to be lacking compared to their American counterparts.

The Russians, however, claim that the MiGs flown in Ukraine are still undergoing testing, so that deficiencies can be identified and corrected before mass production begins. Until then, the bulk of the Mikoyan–Gurevich fighter fleet remains the outdated MiG-31s seen over Estonia—still the fastest fighter aircraft in the world.

* * *

The obsolescence of Russia’s aircraft is naturally good news for Finland, which will soon receive its first F-35 fighters. Even the current Finnish Air Force fleet—the F-18 Hornet—is, according to the Commander, superior to the MiGs in question. That said, the Hornet is roughly from the same era as the MiG-31, its maiden flight having taken place already in 1978.

On the other hand, the MiG-31 and F-18 Hornet have never faced each other in aerial combat, so Jaakkola’s statement about the latter’s superiority is not based on combat experience but most likely only on assessments derived from technical specifications. For that reason, it should be taken with a grain of salt—though I myself believe in the superiority of Western technology over Soviet-era production.

Nor, judging by history, is there reason to doubt that Finnish pilots would be more skilled than their Russian counterparts.

* * *

Finally, it should be noted that the most well-known Russian next-generation stealth fighter is the Sukhoi-57, which has been used—and also shot down—in the war in Ukraine. In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a total of 76 such aircraft would be procured for the country’s air force by 2028.

It would be interesting to know whether our Defence Forces’ Commander also regards the newer Sukhoi and MiG-35 fighters as clearly inferior to their Western counterparts—or whether he sees them as being capable of holding their own in combat against American and European aircraft.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Kremlin’s Provocations Echo Pre-War Rhetoric on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s Russia once again tested Estonia’s air defense by sending fighter jets flying “dark” – that is, without transponders – toward Tallinn. However, the planes turned back after first Finnish and then Italian fighter jets appeared to meet them.

The details of the encounter have not been made public, so we do not know whether the mere appearance of NATO aircraft was enough to make the Russians retreat, or whether the jets had to make it clear in some way that they were serious—perhaps using some kind of signaling, or even weapons, to drive the message home.

In any case, this was the fourth such incident this year, so it cannot be dismissed as a navigational error. Rather, it was a deliberate action—and therefore a dangerous game that relies on the assumption that airspace violators will not be shot down.

* * *

The situation is, of course, extremely difficult for Estonia and for NATO’s defense as a whole. Previous airspace violations have lasted around a minute, but this time the incursion was stretched to four times that length. And as noted above, the course was set toward Tallinn.

The obvious question is whether NATO has agreed on some kind of threshold after which Russian fighters will be actively intercepted—that is, shot down, as happened recently with drones flying in Polish airspace.

Naturally, the threshold for such an action is very high, since downing aircraft would almost certainly trigger extreme military and political tension. At the same time, it is equally clear that Russian fighter jets flying dark and without permission cannot be allowed over Tallinn; they must be stopped in time, and by any means necessary if required.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether these Russian violations of Estonian airspace will continue and lengthen in the coming days and weeks—and whether they might extend into Finnish airspace as well, testing Finland’s readiness in the same way.

This possibility may be hinted at by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s claim that the Finnish government’s “façade of neutrality has fallen away,” and that a politics of retribution has “literally arisen” in our country. A similar goal also seems to be served by statements from Russia—apparently aimed at undermining Finnish unity—suggesting that Finland’s population is dissatisfied with the government, and that the absence of Russian tourists in eastern Finland has led to “population decline” and economic weakening in Southeast Finland.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these narratives resemble the kind of rhetoric the Putin regime used to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is why Finland’s—and NATO’s—communication toward Russia must be firm and unequivocal, making it clear that Russia has nothing to gain beyond its northwestern borders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

When Diversity Beats Doctors: Three UK Healthcare Realities to Make Stalin Envious

I just read a news story about the United Kingdom which, in all its absurdity, seemed downright unbelievable. According to it, a radiographer is “obliged to inquire about possible pregnancy even, for example, from middle-aged men.”

In other words, this is about the impact of diversity, equity, and inclusion—DEI—on the way hospitals operate. But the detail I just mentioned wasn’t even the most ridiculous part of the article. At least not in my opinion; it only took third place.

Second place in this intellectual somersault went to the claim that the health system in England spends over 45 million euros annually on salaries for staff working in diversity roles. And as a result, there apparently isn’t enough money for things like new office chairs. 

And the gold medal? That went to the revelation that DEI trainers in Britain’s healthcare system can indeed be paid several times more than doctors. Yes—you read that correctly, dear reader: a doctor is no longer the most important figure in healthcare, at least if measured by salary. That role now belongs to a political commissar spreading left-liberal propaganda and keeping watch over others.

My apologies to all the British readers, but at this very moment I can’t think of much positive to say about you. Unless, of course, one counts the fact that even the late dictator of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, would be envious of your achievements.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now

When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Many states have recognized the State of Palestine. In other words, they have recognized something that does not even exist.

Finland is not, at least for the time being, part of this group. But now the entire Finnish green-left – the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Left Alliance – have demanded that Finland’s government recognize the State of Palestine. In other words – I repeat – recognize something that does not even exist.

President of Finland Alexander Stubb has left this matter to the government and parliament, meaning he has promised to sign the recognition if such a proposal is placed on his desk. It has not yet been presented, but according to Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, “the government is still processing the matter, but our main policy, as decided in the foreign and security policy report, is that we promote the two-state solution.”

In practice, the government is unlikely to make such a proposal to the President, since its other main party, the Finns Party, as well as its smallest party, the Christian Democrats, oppose recognition. The President has also acknowledged this, saying: “Somehow I don’t believe I will receive this proposal before the UN meeting next week.

* * *

For my part, I state that if a new independent state is created in Palestine, I am ready to support its recognition immediately. On the other hand, I do not wish under any circumstances to recognize something that does not even exist.

In this, I follow the model set by Western countries over a hundred years ago – including Germany, which was at war with them – who decided after Finland declared independence in 1917 that recognition would not come until Soviet Russia itself recognized the new state. This led the ruling Senate of Finland to turn to Lenin’s Council of People’s Commissars.

After various stages, Lenin then acknowledged the facts as they were and recognized Finland’s independence. After that, Western nations followed suit one by one, and there has been no ambiguity about Finland’s independence since, even though the Soviet Union tried to occupy the country during World War II – on two separate occasions.

This is the same model I am prepared to recommend for the recognition of Palestine. That is, let the Palestinians lay down their arms, make peace with Israel, and agree on the conditions under which an entity made up of the West Bank and Gaza could achieve independence. And let Finland, in that context, acknowledge the reality – and grant recognition to the new state only then.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Did Finland Remain an Independent Democracy After World War II?
When Should We Recognize the Independence of Palestine?
Palestinian Youth Require More Understanding, Less Aggression

Swedish Ministers Condemn Antisemitic Protest Outside Jewish School

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Stenergard commented on social media about a demonstration held in front of a Jewish elementary school, which was directed against Jews. According to her, “This is not about freedom of speech, but about creating terror and fear among children living in Sweden. Their families have been persecuted for generations. I feel nothing but disgust toward those who do this.”

She further stated that “this is an entirely new movement that is emerging. It hides behind freedom of speech, but does not respect it at all. The demonstrators are doing more than just protesting. This has no place in Sweden.”

The country’s Minister of Culture, Parisa Liljestrand, is also concerned about the demonstration. According to her social media update, “yet another line has been crossed. This is revolting.”

* * *

Unfortunately, this incident is by no means unique in Sweden, as antisemitism has increased in the country almost explosively. Statistics illustrate this: in the autumn of 2022, police reports were filed in 24 cases of hate crimes with an identified antisemitic motive. A year later, during the same period, as many as 110 such reports were made.Based on press photos of the aforementioned case, it appears that both Swedes and Islamic immigrants were present—adults carrying Palestinian flags and anti-Israel banners. No physical violence or weapons, however, were visible.

It remains to be seen how the former ‘people’s home’ will treat its Jewish minority in the future, as the Muslim minority of at least one million people continues to grow rapidly. The question is whether peaceful coexistence between different religious groups will endure, or whether at some point demonstrations will escalate into more serious clashes.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
The Left Wants to Grill a Swedish Minister Over His Son’s Past – What’s Really Behind It?
Demonstrations cause trouble in Helsinki and Sweden

Both the Best and the Dumbest in Tokyo Emerged Today

Today was undoubtedly the most significant day of the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo. This is because we witnessed two truly remarkable performances.

The first of them was Sweden’s Armand Duplantis’ dominant victory – and a new world record – in the men’s pole vault. Based on that, I dare to say already before the halfway point of the championships that Duplantis is currently athletics’ brightest superstar and the most dominant athlete. Grattis!

The second particularly remarkable performance came in the 3,000-meter steeplechase, where Soufiane El Bakkali earned himself the title of the championships’ dumbest athlete. What else can you think of a runner who accelerates after the final water jump into a clear lead, but then can’t be bothered to push all the way to the end, slows down after the final dry barrier, and for that reason is overtaken just a few meters before the finish line?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
Finnish Artists Embarrassed Themselves Over the Eurovision Song Contest
Football-Associated Violence Is a Personality Problem

Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine is becoming ever more visible in Russia. Fresh examples of this include the derailment of two trains in the Leningrad region and a drone strike on the Primorsk (Koivisto) oil terminal, which has left Russian oil exports from this port still suspended.

According to a social media account called The War Action, during the past August Ukraine struck 22 oil- and gas-related facilities, 12 railway infrastructure targets, six defense industry companies, three ports and warehouses, and two airports. As a result, this month ten Russian regions have faced such severe fuel shortages that some independent gas stations shut down entirely—and where operations continue, gasoline prices have risen.

At the same time, the balance of power on the battlefield has shifted. For instance, near Dobropillia, Ukrainian armed forces units have advanced west of Volodymyrivka. Several Russian detachments remain encircled near Kucheriv Yar—and even the reinforcements sent to assist them are themselves facing encirclement.

If these developments continue, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s dictator will begin to weaken. His situation is made no easier by the fact that Donald Trump has called on all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia, to impose tougher sanctions against it, and to levy 50–100 percent import tariffs on China.

As a carrot, Trump has offered that if all his demands are met, the United States will also be ready to impose major sanctions against Russia—thereby forcing Vladimir Putin to end his special operation, or at least compelling the Russian people to rid themselves of their dictator.

Putin’s difficult situation is also evident from the fact that even Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko has begun to distance himself from his regime. This was seen, for example, when Belarusian authorities warned the Poles about drones that had recently crossed the border through Belarusian airspace.

Or what do you think, my dear reader? Could all this be a sign that Vladimir Vladimirovich’s countdown has now begun? Or am I just dreaming?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

Challenging What We Think We Know: Wildfires Reveal the Power of Science

Large wildfires make headlines that spread across the world. This certainly does nothing to lessen the negative stigma attached to them.

That is why it was so interesting to come across a study examining the impact of wildfires in the western United States on air quality in other parts of the country. The researchers’ hypothesis was that wildfires would worsen air quality simply because of smoke transport.

However, the hypothesis turned out to be incorrect. Ma and colleagues showed that extreme wildfires in the West actually reduce fine particle concentrations in the eastern United States by roughly the same amount as they increase them in the West.

This surprising result was explained by the fact that heat-induced convection from the fires weakens eastward transport of smoke and enhances the removal of air pollutants through precipitation. In fact, this mechanism reduces human mortality and economic losses nationwide!

Of course, it is welcome news that the health effects of wildfires may not be as dramatic as feared. Yet in my view, the real lesson of this study lies elsewhere. It once again demonstrates that ordinary and seemingly logical assumptions people make do not necessarily correspond to reality. At the same time, it helps to highlight why systematic science is very likely one of humanity’s most important institutions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
Scientific misconduct on prevailing theories is too attractive