Predictions Based on the Opinion Polls in the UK

The elections in the United Kingdom gave the Labour Party virtually unlimited power with around one-third of the vote. This was due to the electoral system, but at the same time, it was obviously contrary to the general idea of democracy, where every political movement should have representation in the decision-making bodies—parliaments—that reflects their share of the vote as accurately as possible.

Thus, Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, and his government has "distinguished itself" by violently suppressing protests and restricting freedom of speech. You might expect this to be reflected in post-election party support polls.

Interestingly, according to Politico's published tracking, Labour's support has remained unchanged, as has the Conservatives'. However, the support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK and the Greens has increased by several percentage points, even though the latter, in particular, has no realistic chance of becoming a significant political player due to the peculiarities of the UK's electoral system.

Let’s consider what would happen if this trend continued until the next elections. In that case, Reform UK would surpass the Conservatives in support and perhaps even challenge Labour. However, this party differs from the other two in that its support is distributed much more evenly across the population and geography. Therefore, far fewer of its candidates would be elected in the UK’s single-member constituencies than would happen under a proportional electoral system.

Thus, Labour might continue to hold power in Britain even if its vote count ended up being smaller than that of Reform UK. Only a true landslide victory could make Farage the Prime Minister.

For this reason, it is not insignificant how the British people react to Starmer’s government policies. Will censorship of opinions and turning a blind eye to the behavior of immigrants cause Labour supporters to abandon Starmer, or will they see these—odd from a Finnish perspective—actions as reflecting their will as expressed in the elections?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Swedish TV Did Not Learn Anything From the Riots in the UK
Why Were Violent Protests Acceptable for George Floyd but Not for the UK Child Murders?
Elections in the UK: A Shift Toward Hand-Waving Politics?

Afghans Had to Go

In Germany, there is growing frustration with the behavior of Afghans who fled the Islamist regime in their country. As a result, the country deported nearly 30 Afghans who had committed serious crimes back to their homeland. The news does not report how the Taliban responded to this.

The news also does not clarify whether the German government's decision was influenced by the rising support for parties opposing asylum, particularly in the eastern part of the country. This is the region that previously had to live under a distasteful communist regime that disregarded human rights.

The case is significant because the deportation occurred to a country whose lack of human rights is unquestionable. Yet, despite this, the Germans decided to deport individuals who had been granted asylum there.

Also another significant decision was made. According to it, a refugee or asylum seeker's vacation trip to their home country will result in the revocation of their refugee status and deportation. However, they are still allowed to travel to their home country for the funeral of a close relative – as long as they can prove that such a funeral is indeed being held.

A third, but lesser point, is that Germany has decided to return humanitarian refugees to the EU country where they were first registered. As a result, asylum shopping will become more difficult for refugees seeking social security benefits.

It remains to be seen whether these changes will serve as examples for other countries suffering from Islamic immigration, such as Sweden, Belgium, or France. Or Finland, where the second-largest party – and now part of the government – is the Finns Party, which has a critical stance on immigration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth
A caliphate was demanded in Germany

Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

According to a recent survey, as many as 70 percent of Finnish schoolchildren suffer from mental health issues. A significant cause of this is the news coverage related to climate change and the environment, which has driven even the most gifted young people into deep anxiety.

For this reason, I once again decided to analyze the melting of Arctic sea ice, which has been claimed to result in ice-free waters by the 2030s. Based on the statistics, I created the following image using data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's dataset "All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily," which officially begins in 1987 (prior to this, the dataset only contains data for every second day).

From this dataset, I extracted the minimum extent of Arctic ice for each year and plotted the following image, which shows the annual minimum extent of Arctic ice, its five-year moving average, and a linear trendline generated by Excel, which I manually extended across the entire chart.

From the red five-year moving average, it can be seen that the ice melt can be divided into three phases. From the start of the dataset until the mid-1990s, it was slow, but then accelerated for over a decade, reaching its minimum in 2013. After that, the melting slowed down again.

The black regression curve drawn on the chart for the entire dataset, however, shows that if the trend were to continue as it has in the recorded data, the Arctic sea ice would likely not be ice-free even by 2050. Therefore, the melting predicted by climate scientists for the 2030s must be based on other factors.

To understand this, I drew another image, in which I manually fitted a straight line that follows only the rapid melting phase in the middle of the dataset, aligning with the red five-year moving average. This appears as a green line in the image below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this line corresponds to the scientific prediction of ice melt in the near future. Thus, it seems that the forecast in question—despite being mathematically and scientifically complex—is ultimately based on a development that would occur if the ice melt follows the trend from the late 1990s to 2013.

But what about the events in Arctic sea ice melting after 2013? To understand this, I performed a similar manual line fitting operation based on the post-2013 data. This is shown as a blue line in the diagram below.

As my esteemed reader will notice, this "data fit" also indicates a downward trend, but a very gradual one. And if this trend prevails in the Arctic, no living person today will witness an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Not even their children.

Therefore, I would hope that media coverage of climate change, and especially the melting of Arctic sea ice, would be less sensationalist and instead highlight the factors that suggest extreme views are unlikely to materialize. These also indicate that the models predicting rapid climate change still involve vast uncertainties, suggesting that humanity most likely has ample time to adapt to the ever-changing environment.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January

 

The Environmental Crime Had Many Cooks, But Who Will Pay?

A couple of weeks ago, an environmental crime took place in Finland that has garnered massive attention in Finnish media. It involved the destruction of a river inhabited by the protected freshwater pearl mussel, caused by repeatedly driving a forestry machine over it hundreds of times.

The case came to light because there happened to be an outsider present at the scene, who pointed out the issue to the machine operator, only to receive a response filled with foul language and a statement that they would continue working as before. Since then, the case has led to a police investigation, but the outcome is not yet known.

In practice, the forest had been purchased by Stora Enso, a Finnish-Swedish forest industry company. It had contracted the forestry work to a harvesting contractor, who in turn had subcontracted the job. The crime itself was committed by an employee of this subcontractor.

However, Finnish news coverage has largely focused on Stora Enso's potential liability in the incident. It hasn't helped that the company has given an open mandate to repair whatever can be repaired at its expense and has suspended wood procurement from all sites known to have environmental restrictions. Additionally, it has reported one site to the authorities where the company suspects illegal activity may have taken place.

As I mentioned earlier, the matter is under police investigation, which will eventually determine who is responsible. Right now, however, it seems to me that Stora Enso has been unfairly placed in the spotlight, as the available information suggests that the company provided proper instructions to the contractor, but the operator did not follow them and continued illegal activity after being warned about it.

In any case, the destruction of freshwater pearl mussels has a price under Finnish law – 589 euros per individual – so the destruction of potentially thousands of animals could lead to compensation exceeding a million euros. It remains to be seen whether Stora Enso, the main contractor, the subcontractor, or the machine operator will be held financially responsible.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
A new justification is needed for environmental activists

Will Orpo's Government Restore Finland to Sustainable Economic Growth?

The previous government of Finland – led by the exceptionally beautiful Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) – was unable to manage Finland's public finances. This became particularly evident after the COVID pandemic was over, and the public sector should have been adjusted to match the available funds.

However, this was not done, and during Marin's government, Finland's public debt rose from 69% of GDP in 2019 to nearly 76%. At the same time, automatic expenditures were built into the state budget – the largest being a new level of administration with elected representatives for wellbeing services – which also forced the new government, led by the uncharismatic Petteri Orpo (NCP), to live on borrowed money.

The current strict Minister of Finance, Riikka Purra (Finns Party), recently commented on the situation. According to her, "The tax-funded bubble is even worse than I thought before taking on these tasks. I often wonder in my office, where protests, shouting, and threats occur under my window, whether the taxpayer really has to pay for all of this. Sometimes for legitimate reasons, and sometimes just because some acquired benefit has to be given up again."

She also criticized the attitude of the left-green opposition, stating that "Instead of constructing even a slightly coherent alternative to the government's economic and fiscal policy, the opposition strikes, hits, and shoots in all directions with every possible means."

Despite everything, Purra still believes that Finland's economy will turn for the better. This, of course, requires bringing public spending under control, as well as the success of Finnish businesses – from small bars to heavy industry – in domestic and international competition.

There have already been a few positive signals in this regard. One example is the order received by a Finnish shipbuilder for a massive Caribbean cruise ship, and another is the better-than-expected success of pharmaceutical company Orion’s new innovation on the market. The forest industry, which is particularly important for the entire economy, is also expected to improve its results within this year.

However, the most important task remains bringing public spending under control. This requires significant changes, especially in healthcare, where the new administrative structure has turned out to be even more expensive than anticipated, and the costly salary agreement implemented during the previous government doesn’t help matters.

It remains to be seen whether Orpo's government will succeed in returning Finland to a path of economic growth, one that hasn’t been seen since before 2009, but is optimistically reflected in the linked graph. 

And in any case, the recovery of the Finnish economy would be welcomed in order to attract highly skilled labor from abroad. Or as Purra stated: "When it comes to real foreign top experts, they will come along with private sector-led economic growth. This creates high value-added jobs that foreigners will also want to pursue."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Balancing the Books
The Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs apologized to the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs for the words of the woman who criticized the man who exposed his penis
Finnish horror gallery and reality

Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies

Ukraine's successful offensive against Russia has undoubtedly caused headaches for Putin's administration. And it is not impossible that the Russians might decide to do something extraordinary to rid themselves of this embarrassing situation.

One possibility, of course, would be to divert the Ukrainians' attention elsewhere. This could happen in cooperation with Belarus, for example, by inciting Lukashenko to involve his army in the war.

Such a move would obviously not be in Belarus' best interest, especially given that its military is weak compared to Russia and even Ukraine. However, the fact remains that Belarus has gathered a large contingent of troops near the Ukrainian border.

The most likely reason for this, however, is not an attack on Ukraine but the annual joint military exercises held with Russia. This would also explain the presence of Russian units in the area, such as the Wagner Group.

From the Ukrainians' perspective, it is clear that the troops gathering in the north cannot be ignored, and Zelensky will need to deploy his own military units in response. Therefore, Lukashenko will end up assisting Putin’s army, even if the Belarusians do not carry out a single operation across the Ukrainian border.

One can only hope that this doesn’t halt Ukraine’s well-advanced progress on the Russian side of the border. This is important because the further they advance, the more they will affect Russia in the same way that the Belarusian troops are affecting Ukraine: by forcing Putin to halt his own sluggish but progressing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and relocate his units away from Ukraine.

There is a fourth card in this game as well—one that has remained hidden so far—namely Poland. Militarily strong, Poland could, if it chose to, significantly alter the military balance in Ukraine. That’s why the recent incursion of a Russian drone into Polish airspace was extremely bad news for the Russians, as it gives the Poles a legitimate reason to intervene in the war in Ukraine.

One clear reason for such an intervention could be the resolution of World War II, in which Poland was shifted about a hundred kilometers westward. The lost territories likely still stir strong emotions among many Poles, which might lower the threshold for seizing the opportunity to right the wrongs experienced by their grandparents. Especially when Russia's army in Ukraine has proven to be more of a paper tiger than a real military force.

It remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will continue from the current situation, and whether a resolution will eventually be reached that all parties can accept. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare

What Does the Failure of Hezbollah's Attack Tell Us?

The terrorist organization Hezbollah planned to send 6,000 long-range rockets and drones to Israel. Israeli intelligence apparently uncovered the organization's intentions, resulting in the Israeli Air Force conducting a preemptive strike.

As a result, Hezbollah was able to launch only 320 rockets and drones, most of which were destroyed by Israel's air defense. The outcome was therefore entirely expected.

Expected because there are no intelligent people in Hezbollah's ranks. Instead, there are hordes of fanatical Muslims who, at best, are only capable of making themselves a laughingstock. And that’s exactly what the outcome of the operation showed!

At the same time, they demonstrated that Iran also has no real capability to harm Israel in any significant way. And despite recent bluster, Iran is not going to carry out a major attack against the Jewish state.

Or if they do, it will only prove that they are some kind of monkeys, with no understanding of their own capabilities. But could anyone expect anything different from the leadership of a country whose ideology is fundamentalist Islam?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Muslim Woman's Lack of Solidarity with Iranian Women
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City

The day's news in Finland (Yle, Ilta-Sanomat, Etelä-Suomen Sanomat) reported on a terrorist attack that took place at the "Festival of Diversity" in the German city of Solingen, where three people were fatally stabbed. Additionally, four other people were injured.

The terrorist was a male, but I couldn’t find any more specific details in the Finnish media. However, there is a claim circulating on social media that the attacker was an "Arab immigrant." Time will tell whether this claim is true or not.

There was also a credible claim on social media that, in the same city of Solingen, an African man attempted to set fire to a restaurant owned by someone of Arab descent at the end of June. However, something went wrong, and the arsonist ended up setting only himself on fire.

The city's population is very diverse, as already in 2020, around 35 percent of the population was non-ethnic Germans. The largest population groups were Italians, Turks, and Syrians, but people from as many as 140 different countries lived in the city. Among children under the age of three, a full 56 percent had a migration background, so it won't be long before ethnic Germans become a minority in the city.

One can only hope that the stabber is caught as soon as possible and receives the deserved punishment for his crime. And that the Germans channel any potential frustration with the new Germans democratically—by voting in the upcoming elections for politicians who know how to solve the immigration problem that has arisen in the country.

Hopefully, for us Finns and other Europeans, this case shows that diversity comes at a price. And therefore, its excessive increase in Finland would also have consequences.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth
A caliphate was demanded in Germany
In Germany, immigration policy changes are being planned

Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region and its western surroundings is encircling a large Russian army behind the Seim River. According to recent reports, this force is rather inexperienced and poorly motivated, with no intention of fighting against the Ukrainians.

This would, of course, be a bitter blow to Vladimir Putin and the Russian military leadership, who have repeatedly boasted about their army's great capabilities. If it turns out that Putin and the war leadership are unable to save the unwilling Russian soldiers and they refuse to fight, both will become laughingstocks in the eyes of the world.

What makes this situation particularly interesting is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians likely remember the Battle of Raate Road during Finland’s Winter War. There, Finnish soldiers managed to encircle and destroy units that were twice as strong, primarily consisting of Russians and Ukrainians.

According to Soviet sources, the final outcome was 1,001 enemy soldiers killed, 1,430 wounded, 2,243 missing, and 82 frostbitten, in addition to 1,100 prisoners of war captured by the Finns and a huge amount of weapons and other military equipment. On the Finnish side, around 402 soldiers were killed or went missing, and 618 were wounded.

One can hope that the Ukrainians have learned from the Battle of Raate Road and that the Russians are aware of the enormous losses their compatriots suffered back then. Ultimately, perhaps this battle will also turn out to be one where Russia must admit it is incapable of completing Putin's special operation and will refuse to carry out the orders of a leader who has become a laughingstock.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What’s the Issue With Russians?
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience

A Muslim Woman's Lack of Solidarity with Iranian Women

A Muslim woman said on social media that, "Western women are harassed for dressing like shameless women. With the hijab and niqab, they would have more dignity and respect!"

The comment is problematic in (at least) two ways. Firstly, it reduces all men to mindless animals who are incapable of controlling themselves when they see a woman’s skin. This may hold true in some cultures, though in European culture, it is a marginal—if not outright sick—phenomenon.

Secondly, it shows that this woman has so deeply submitted to the violent threat of Muslim men that she doesn’t even have the solidarity to keep quiet out of respect for her own gender. I’m referring, of course, to those women who, for example in Iran, are risking their lives just to dress as they choose. And who, as a result, are subjected to the violence of the ape-like men of their own culture.

What I find particularly incomprehensible is that in Western countries, it is precisely women who support such immigration, which brings among us such ape-like men. This is especially evident now in the United Kingdom, but the phenomenon is clear elsewhere in Europe as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Mistreatment of Women at the Olympics?
Prediction: Sharia law in force in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France by the year 2044
A young woman skiing in a swimsuit caused a controversy among women

Sweden's Gang Crime Recruits Children – Is It Time for the EU to Reevaluate Asylum Policies?

Members of the "Nattvandrarna" association in Sweden have told Sweden's TV4 that, with the increase in gang-related crime among children and young people, even eight-year-old children have been recruited for shady activities. And 12-year-old children wear bulletproof vests, saying that "it's much easier to be shot in the head because then you die instantly."

The recruitment of children happens in such a way that older gang members make contact with them and try to be friendly, for example, by offering them treats. Once the connection is established, the children are given simple tasks, such as whistling if the police or another perceived threat to the criminals approaches. This way, for example, drug dealers can disappear from the scene and avoid getting caught.

Naturally, those working with the Nattvandrarna association are concerned about the situation and have tried to draw politicians' attention to it, for example by inviting them to join them on the streets. However, the success has been minimal, with decision-makers at best merely writing worried statements.

* * *

Sweden's southern neighbor, Denmark, has tightened border controls at their shared border because Swedish gang crime has also spilled over there. The country's Deputy Chief of Police has reported that Swedish youths have been lured across the border to commit murders.

According to him, one can earn 100,000 crowns for killing someone in Denmark. However, according to Denmark's TV2, the amount is somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 Swedish crowns, which is equivalent to tens of thousands of euros. It’s a cheap price for a human life, but an enormous amount of money for a child from an immigrant family that has failed to integrate.

* * *

All of this is public knowledge. Despite this, people who have proven to be poorly integrated are still allowed to seek asylum in Western countries. For example, in Finland, the principle is still followed that asylum is granted unless the authorities can prove that the application is based on false grounds. In other words, the asylum seeker does not have to prove that they are under threat in their home country; it is enough to credibly claim that this is the case.

Such a practice is pure foolishness and leads to difficulties like those that have occurred in Sweden. This is evidenced by the fact that in the Swedish-speaking Åland Islands, which are part of Finland, there has been a continuous influx of Swedes in recent years.

As a result, the proportion of residents born in Sweden in the region has already risen to ten percent. These people openly state that security concerns were one of the main reasons for their move.

So, the question is whether Finns and citizens of other EU countries should do something about it before it is too late. Like changing their interpretation of the Geneva Refugee Convention or reducing the kinds of incentives that have led to mass immigration of people who are poorly integrated into society - the latter being included in the action plan of the current Finnish Government.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Swedish TV Did Not Learn Anything From the Riots in the UK
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Finland to Tighten Asylum Legislation and Reduce Undocumented Residents

The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin

Germany, led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, plans to halve its support for Ukraine in order to get its debt under control. In doing so, it will also end up supporting Vladimir Putin's dictatorially ruled Russia.

This is happening at a time when Ukraine has just demonstrated its ability to surprise the Russian army after receiving a large aid package from the United States. In other words, it has shown that with the support of Western countries, it can change the course of the war.

Arkady Moshes of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs mentioned that "it is visible that Ukraine's Western allies are steering Ukraine towards a ceasefire or peace," because "some Westerners are no longer worried that Ukraine's collapse would lead them into a risky situation."

This statement immediately brought to my mind British Foreign Minister Neville Chamberlain's 1938 declaration of "peace for our time," after he and his Western colleagues had forced Czechoslovakia to cede part of its territory to Adolf Hitler's Germany. "Our time" lasted less than a year back then.

Of course, Scholz is just a Social Democrat, and perhaps for that reason, we cannot expect much understanding from him. Or at least, his Finnish ideological counterpart Timo Harakka does not possess such understanding, as journalist Ulla Appelsin just reminded us.

The fact remains, however, that if Western countries allow Russia to benefit from its attack on Ukraine, not only will Putin take note of it, but so will many other rulers of undemocratic states. The most notable of these is China, which has an obsession with incorporating Taiwan, but also has ambitions in the vicinity of the Himalayan mountains.

By saying all this, I do not mean that the end of the war in Ukraine is not a good and important goal. Rather, I remind you that peace at any cost is not reasonable.

And European politicians should therefore avoid making Chamberlain-like mistakes and ensure that the democratic world does not allow the use of military force to redraw national borders—not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, and not at the borders of Finland or the Baltic States.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A gift from the free world to Ukraine

What’s the Issue With Russians?

Almost all Finns nowadays know that recognizing facts is the beginning of wisdom. In Russia, however, there seems to be some confusion about this.

A Finnish afternoon newspaper Iltalehti reported on this in an article where a film director warned that Russia could lose the war it started in Ukraine. According to the director, "we should always start from the premise that we can lose... we can lose if such blunders continue."

This was not about inciting defeatism, which he made clear by stating, "this is not about discouragement. It is not about spreading fear... It is simply a clear understanding of the price that we and our country will have to pay."

The director also wondered, "on TV, we always show Ukrainians who do not want to fight... But now we see that they are fighting well. And they are very motivated. Why are we deceiving ourselves?"

It is well known that in Russia, the "truth" is always what the country’s dictator—whether it be a tsar, the chairman of the politburo, or Putin—sees fit. And this time, the price has been paid by the soldiers sent to the war in Ukraine, especially the approximately half a million people who have lost their lives or health as a result of their country's leader's madness.

From what I have written above, the inevitable question arises as to why this is the case. That is, what flaw in the Russian people or their culture prevents our eastern neighbors from building a society where people could live well. After all, we are talking about the world's richest country in terms of natural resources, with a population that is also reasonably well-educated.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Russian games
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

Javier Milei of Argentina Called England a Dystopian Socialist Nightmare

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, faced a crisis after several white girls were stabbed, followed by demonstrations against British immigration policies that included some violent individuals. Then, he—or his cabinet—made a major mistake by adopting a two-tiered approach, favoring Muslims and targeting British rioters.

As a solution, the courts started to impose strict punishments on people for their social media posts. According to the Argentinian President, Javier Milei, this indicated that England was transforming into a dystopian socialist nightmare.

Milei: "we are undertaking a change of paradigm, not only economic, but also social, political and cultural. And with this change we are going against the direction that in recent times many countries in the world are undertaking. While other countries propose censorship, we propose freedom of expression.

Look at just what is happening in England, since the socialists came to power, they are putting people in jail for posting on social networks.  Well, the journalists here would also like it because, let's say, they don't like that they have lost the mic, the monopoly of the microphone and to be able to use that tool to distort and dirty, slander at no cost.

The social networks send them invoices and they don't like it. Stop looking for ghosts. They are receiving the same thing they did, but nothing more than people do it organically because they realized that many of them are criminals. In turn, while others are getting closer and closer to falling into cultural and religious wars, which will eventually expel people from their countries of origin, we invite the rest of the free world to participate in a country under reconstruction."

Well said and truthful, but it's unlikely to ever be reported in the Finnish mainstream media. And perhaps not in the English media either?  

I would not have believed this could happen in Western Europe. And I am happy that in Finland, there is no fear of the authorities because of social media posts. That's why I dare to bring this matter to your attention, my esteemed international and Finnish readers.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Freedom of Speech in Danger
Swedish TV Did Not Learn Anything From the Riots in the UK
Elections in the UK: A Shift Toward Hand-Waving Politics?

Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge

News channel CNN reported that Ukrainians are ready to accept refugees from the Kursk region, which has been captured by the Ukrainian army. However, they also allow people to move to areas still under Russian control.

This idea is excellent, as it provides a way to gauge the satisfaction of the people in the Kursk region with Putin's administration. And if it so happens that many people from Kursk decide to move to Ukraine, it would demonstrate to the whole world the incompetence of Putin's administration towards Russia's own citizens. 

At the same time, it would also be a shameful humiliation for the president himself. So let's wait and see how many people from Kursk take advantage of the opportunity offered by Ukraine, and how many believe they will receive better treatment in Russia.

Apart from that, it's great that the Ukrainians have once again managed to make the operational capabilities of the Russian army a laughingstock. After all, this is supposedly a superpower army, according to the Russians themselves.

This is despite the fact that, in recent days, it has managed to be the second most successful military force operating in Russia. Right after the Ukrainians.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience
Stalemate in Ukraine
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

Do Finns have the patience?

The Finnish economy has been in a mild recession for fifteen years. Now, there seems to be - perhaps - some light at the end of the tunnel once again. This is because, according to preliminary data from Statistics Finland, the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland grew by 0.4 percent from January-March to April-June.

It remains to be seen whether Finland will finally succeed in returning to a growth trajectory that would also allow for balancing the state budget and, eventually, reducing the country's debt. And in time, also increasing the funds available for public services.

In my view, all this is possible, but it requires what former President Urho Kekkonen emphasized in 1952: patience. However, the situation now is different from back then, as the President at that time was urging taxpayers to finance the industrialization of Northern Finland to exploit the region's rich natural resources.

Now, it is more about having the patience to refrain from new public services - and even reduce existing ones - so that the private sector would dare to invest in the country. This applies to both domestic and foreign investors. And workers, who should be willing to follow job opportunities to where they are available.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Balancing the Books
The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end
Why Can't Finland Find Workforce?

Freedom of Speech in Danger

You can read the following text at the top of this blog: "As long as a society has a true freedom of speech it cannot be completely rotten. However, all totally rotten societies are lacking the true freedom of speech."

This is my own statement on what I consider my most important realization related to the political realm: the lack of freedom of speech has always led to societies that, even with the best intentions, cannot be considered good for their inhabitants. That is why society must allow open discussion, even about unpleasant topics. Unfortunately, I am sorry to note that decision-makers in some of the most important Western societies seem to be forgetting this.

This occurred in the UK following violence during demonstrations against immigration, which has led to life-threatening and sexual violence in the island nation. For example, a new UK law allows the government to fine social media companies if they permit "legal but harmful" content, such as misinformation, to spread.

This also happened in the EU, which attempted to censor an interview with a US Presidential candidate—Donald Trump—on an American platform, namely Elon Musk's X.

Interestingly, Elon Musk replied to the EU's letter with wise words from John F. Kennedy: "In 1946, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution reading in part, ´freedom of information is a fundamental human right, and the touchstone of all the freedoms to which the United Nations is consecrated.´ This is our touchstone as well. This is the code of the Voice of America. We welcome the views of others. We seek a free flow of information across national boundaries and oceans, across iron curtains and stone walls. We are not afraid to entrust the American people with unpleasant facts, foreign ideas, alien philosophies, and competitive values. For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people."

I fully agree, and I will continue to advocate for freedom of speech and a better world on this blog.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Relationship Between the Professor and Teemu Selänne
Nightwish and the Disney Company
Ayatollahs in Iran demonstrated their ridiculousness

Balancing the Books

In recent years, there has been much discussion about the indebtedness of nations. This includes Finland, whose debt-to-GDP ratio is at a middle level compared to other Western countries, although it is rapidly increasing.

This debt accumulation can be attributed to a variety of reasons, but it is often due to the inability of politicians in government to make difficult decisions. In other words, choices that may be unpopular with citizens and whose alternative is to arrange matters by taking on debt, the repayment of which will be handled by future governments and, in the worst case, even by generations yet to be born.

In this regard, Finland is an interesting case, as the country's economic growth has been negligible since 2008, while government expenditures have rapidly increased under several administrations. Consequently, public debt in relation to GDP has risen from 28% to 55% in just fifteen years.

As a result of this development, the public sector is forced to allocate increasingly large sums of money to debt servicing rather than providing services to citizens. Finnish Finance Minister Riikka Purra (Finns Party) highlighted this issue with a few examples.

According to her, Finland’s interest expenses on state debt will be 3.5 billion euros next year. This amount is about 1.6 times the total expenditures of the Ministry of the Interior's administration of internal security. It is also larger than the state subsidies for basic services provided by all municipalities to their residents or half of the operational budget allocated annually to the Finnish Defense Forces.

It is hoped that these examples will awaken the political left in Finland—and in other countries as well—to the understanding that lax economic policies have negative consequences. And for the people who elect their leaders to realize that there are no free lunches, and that expanding public services beyond revenues will only lead to bigger problems.

It seems that the current conservative government in Finland has at least a reasonable understanding of this, based on the Finance Minister's statement. However, it is hoped that this understanding will continue with future governments as well, so that Finland’s economy can be put back on a sustainable footing, ensuring that public services can be maintained in the future.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end
Finns are backing the government making difficult decisions
Reducing taxes, enhancing export and paying the governmental debt

Historical Imports

The spread of agriculture among early civilizations has been one of the most significant events in human history. It enabled unprecedented population growth, which eventually led to the formation of population centers and ultimately to the emergence of modern societies.

Despite this, the details of early agricultural conditions and practices remain quite unclear. Therefore, the findings reported in a recent study conducted at La Draga in Spain have provided intriguing insights into early agriculture. The study revealed that societies from around 7,000 years ago developed in relatively humid — and thus favorable — climatic conditions.

Based on the carbon and nitrogen isotopes and the weight of the wheat and barley grains once cultivated by the inhabitants of La Draga, it appeared that the farmers in the area were already practicing large-scale agriculture rather than tending small garden-like plots. These findings were also compared to observations made from sixteen other early agricultural communities.

From the size of the grains and the structure of the ears, it could also be inferred that the characteristics of the crops cultivated at the dawn of European agriculture were likely quite similar to those of modern crops. This indicates that agriculture had developed, and its key features had been established elsewhere. Thus, it arrived in Western Europe as a ready-made lifestyle — in other words, as an imported practice — whose spread was facilitated by the favorable conditions of the time.

* * *

The study I briefly summarized above reinforces the idea that one of the most important developmental steps in human history took place outside of Western Europe. And of course, we know that perhaps as a result of this, the first advanced civilizations — namely the empires of the Sumerians, Babylonians, Assyrians, and Egyptians — arose in the areas that are now Iraq and Egypt instead of Europe.

And Europe only rose alongside and eventually surpassed those regions much later, first thanks to the Greeks and then the Romans. The clear dominance of Europeans in the competition between cultures had to wait until the dawn of the modern era.

However, the world is currently transitioning into a new phase of development, in which southern and northern population groups are rapidly mixing as southern peoples migrate into child-poor Europe and the United States. It remains to be seen what kind of changes this will bring.

Will humanity take new leaps forward as happened 7,000 years ago when agricultural peoples arrived in Western Europe? Or will something similar occur to what happened in Western Europe when the Western Roman Empire collapsed under the pressure of the migrations that took place around the middle of the first century of our era?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A thousand years of unintegrated immigration
Cousin is a cultural delicacy
Finnish women have enjoyed a privileged position since medieval times

An Iranian Student's Fantasy of Two Missiles and a U.S. Aircraft Carrier

Iranian Muslims are displaying a strong sense of bluster. One example of this is a message from a user named Aryan, who has 113,500 followers, stating that it is "impressive: Iran says it has monitored US warships including US aircraft carrier ‘USS Theodore Roosevelt’ in Strait of Hormuz few days ago... Iran said that the aircraft carrier could be sunk by 2 Abu Mahdi cruise missiles, & accompanying destroyers will only require 1 missile."

I don't know if this self-identified student is making this statement purely for propaganda purposes, or if they genuinely believe in Iran's ability to sink American aircraft carriers. If it’s the latter, it sadly speaks to the lack of realism that the Iranian educational, information, and propaganda systems have created.

Of course, it could be that the Iranian is inspired by Ukraine’s successful strikes against the Russian fleet, but they forget that there is a significant difference in the scientific and technical capabilities of the US and Putin's armies. Therefore, Iran has no real chance of sinking an American aircraft carrier with a missile attack. And this should also be well understood among the leaders of Tehran´s warfare troops.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Cancellation of Taylor Swift's Concert in Austria Was a Success for the Terrorists

Terrorists with links to the ISIS organization achieved success in Austria when three concerts by an American pop star Taylor Swift were canceled. This is, of course, unfortunate news for those who had purchased tickets and were looking forward to seeing a major star.

However, an even more distressing situation is the impact on a liberal, organized society, which has been brought to its knees in front of terrorists. This is because, even though the Austrian authorities have apprehended them — or at least three of them — the damage is already done by demonstrating that terrorist acts can influence Western countries. I am sure that this will inspire those individuals who, for one reason or another, are interested in or even excited by terrorism.

It must be said, however, that the descendants of the former Austro-Hungarian empire have themselves partly to blame, as Finnish media have reported that the "suspected perpetrators are 15, 17, and 19 years old, individuals already known to authorities." Yet they were still roaming free in the middle of Europe.

This raises several questions, to which we are unlikely to get answers. For example, why were these three known to the authorities not returned to where they came from? And more broadly, why is Western Europe and its culture slowly committing suicide by allowing an endless queue of Muslims seeking a higher standard of living and social security across its borders, even though they have shown countless times (example, another, and a third) that they pose a risk to organized society?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Two out of three Palestinians support October 7 attack
Prediction: Sharia law in force in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and France by the year 2044

Swedish TV Did Not Learn Anything From the Riots in the UK

According to Swedish TV, crimes committed by young people are causing headaches for authorities in Sweden and Denmark. According to the Danish Minister of Justice, the most important thing is to "prevent the exploitation of Swedish child soldiers in crimes on the Danish side."

This is understandable, as Danish police have arrested several Swedes in recent days. Two Swedes in their twenties were arrested on the Swedish side of the Öresund Bridge because they were suspected of involvement in an explosion in Copenhagen.

A 17-year-old Swedish teenager was also imprisoned on suspicion of attempted murder in Frederiksberg, Copenhagen. The victim of the gun crime was 18 years old. Additionally, 16- and 17-year-old Swedish youths have been imprisoned on suspicion of involvement in two recent shootings that occurred in Nørrebro, Copenhagen, and in Kolding.

As a result of all this, Swedish and Danish police have intensified their cooperation. It is not impossible that border controls between the two countries may be reintroduced, despite having been abolished on Nordic borders decades ago.

Based on all this, it seems that something has significantly changed in Sweden, in particular. However, large-scale immigration from developing countries was not mentioned in the Swedish TV news, so I won’t mention it either, even though, like everyone else in the Nordic countries, I know that it is almost certainly the underlying cause of the events we are now witnessing.

It seems that nothing has been learned in Sweden from the violence in Northern England, where - according to the media at least - disinformation related to the stabber's ethnic-religious identity played a significant role in triggering the events. This false information spread because the authorities failed to disclose immediately the truth about the actual background of the Rwandan-born murderer in the island nation.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Immigration issue
Even a brutal murder didn't stir the Swedes

The Lenin Museum Will No Longer Serve as a Reminder of the Dangers of Political Correctness

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin was the leader of the Russian Revolution and the first dictator of the Soviet Union. Among his most notable achievements in this position was the starvation of at least five million people due to his idiotic agricultural policies.

Less well known, however, is Lenin's history in my home country. During his exile, he often operated from Finland.

Lenin first expressed his support for Finland's independence at meetings held in Tampere in 1905 and 1906, in the building that now houses the Lenin Museum. The Soviet dictator did not do this out of goodwill but rather to weaken Tsarist Russia.

After his revolution, Lenin hoped that newly independent Finland would fall into a revolution that would bring it back into the fold of Soviet Russia. To this end, he incited the left, which indeed launched a bloody rebellion in 1918.

Today, it was reported in the Finnish press that the Lenin Museum, which I mentioned earlier, has seen more visitors this summer than in a long time. The reason is likely that the museum is set to close on November 3rd.

Thus, one monument to a time when Finland sought to secure its independence by avoiding provoking the eastern superpower is closing. This strategy was quite successful in that Finland remained independent, but the price was the eventual withering of Western-style democracy and the media's descent into the "woke" phenomenon of its time, where all opinions critical of the Soviet Union were condemned as politically incorrect and heretical.

This fate eventually befell even the largest right-wing party, the National Coalition Party, which subsequently joined the ruling center-left in adhering to the same policy of silence on certain facts. In doing so, it had to abandon the virtues of open democracy and freedom of speech.

All of this is relevant in the current world, where there are also attempts to condemn views based on people's own experiences and understanding as politically incorrect, regardless of their truth. In this sense, it is a shame that the Lenin Museum is closing, as it serves as a reminder of a time when Finland gradually slid into its own "truth," where black was white if the country's political leadership decreed it so in fear of the Soviet Union.

If my dear reader notes similarities in this writing to recent events in the United Kingdom or Ireland, Olympics or the changes in the workplace experienced in many Western countries, they may very well be on the right track.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
A young woman skiing in a swimsuit caused a controversy among women
Nightwish and the Disney Company

Forests in Indonesia and Finland

According to a new research paper, Indonesia has lost one quarter of its old-growth forest since 1990, with its intact forest area (natural forest undisturbed by human activity) declining by 45%. Nearly half of Indonesia’s deforested land had no detectable land use five years after clearing.

This was caused by fires, long assumed to be Indonesia’s principal idle land driver, and by deliberate mechanical clearing, an understudied phenomenon despite its large deforestation footprint. When idle areas were converted to productive uses, the majority were planted with oil palms, which covered 28% of Indonesia’s deforested land by 2020.

Oil palms were the only major land use for which lagged conversion was the norm; other major drivers such as smallholder agriculture were typically established immediately after clearing.

This can be compared to boreal forestry in Finland, where practically all clear-cut forests are regenerated within a couple of years—mostly within one year—using local tree species selected based on their soil requirements. Forest fires do occur but are quickly extinguished, so the burned areas very rarely exceed one hundred hectares. Even then, they are regenerated very soon.

The amount of wood in Finnish forests has increased continuously since the 1960s, despite the country’s strong forest industry, which contributes almost one-fifth of its export value. At the same time, the area of protected forests has increased year after year, and there are currently 73 old-growth forest reserves established on state-owned lands.

The lesson to be learned is that forests can be used efficiently in two ways: sustainably or destructively. But what should we do to make the first option so attractive that it would be practiced everywhere?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto aligned Indonesia on the wrong side of world history
A new justification is needed for environmental activists
They want to wipe out from Finland what is good for Africa

The UK Prime Minister Took a One-Sided Stance on the Country's Protests

A knife attack by an immigrant-background individual at a children's dance event has led to escalating protests in the UK. You can get a fairly comprehensive picture of these protests from this social media thread.

According to the thread, violence has been committed by anti-immigration protesters—some of whom are far-right extremists—as well as Muslim immigrants. Additionally, it appears that "woke" leftists have also been involved in the violence.

However, this does not change the fact that the majority of protesters have not engaged in any violence but have simply wanted to express their dissatisfaction with the immigration policies being practiced in their country. These people are most likely ordinary Britons.

* * *

A separate issue involves the attacks on two hotels housing asylum seekers. In Tamworth, a town with a population of about 80,000, there have been incidents of rape, some of which were committed by individuals with immigrant backgrounds, though not all.

Rotherham is a slightly larger town, known for a child abuse ring that operated for about 30 years, during which Pakistani men sexually abused around 1,400 girls and women.

Authorities have been aware of this situation since at least 1990, but the operation was not shut down until 23 years later. This delay was due to a combination of factors, including race, class, religion, and gender.

There was fear that the ethnicity of the perpetrators would lead to accusations of racism, as well as contemptuous and sexist attitudes toward the primarily working-class victims. Additionally, authorities were concerned with protecting the town’s reputation, their training was inadequate, and they struggled to find the resources to investigate the matter.

Therefore, it is extremely interesting that Rotherham has now come to the forefront of these events, with an attack on a hotel doing business with migrants from developing countries. And I can fully understand the reasons why the town does not welcome immigrants who come solely for the high social welfare in the UK.

* * *

The UK's newly appointed Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has naturally commented on the events. According to him, people in UK have the right to feel safe, and yet we have seen Muslim communities being targeted, mosques attacked, other minority communities persecuted, Nazi salutes made on the streets, police officers attacked, and baseless violence used alongside racist rhetoric. So, he has no hesitation in calling that as far-right hooliganism.

However, referring back to the social media thread I linked at the beginning, it would have generally been better if the Prime Minister had not taken sides at this point, but rather condemned all forms of violence. This is true even though the violence was undoubtedly initiated by anti-immigration young men, whom Starmer likely meant by the term "far-right."

A more neutral stance has indeed been taken by some. For example, Hampshire Police and Crime Commissioner Donna Jones, who is also a Conservative politician, condemned the rioters but also criticized the Prime Minister’s actions.

According to Jones, Starmer’s actions have led to accusations of two-tier policing, which has incited protesters who claim to be fighting for Britain’s sovereignty, identity, and to stop illegal immigration. She also mentioned having spoken to people on both sides and called on the government to recognize the underlying causes of the unrest so that it can be stopped.

It remains to be seen what political solutions the UK will ultimately adopt and whether these will lead to changes in the country’s immigration policies or even serve as the building blocks for future—and possibly even more severe—social crises driven by changes in the demographic structure.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Were Violent Protests Acceptable for George Floyd but Not for the UK Child Murders?
Elections in the UK: A Shift Toward Hand-Waving Politics?
A white family does not represent real Londoners

The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end

Finland's economy has struggled since 2008. This is partly due to the fact that the global crisis at that time was preceded by Nokia's success as a mobile phone manufacturer, which led to an expansion of the public sector in hopes of scoring political points.

Then Nokia's glory days came to an end, and Finland was left with an oversized and expensive public sector relative to its income. However, dismantling it proved nearly impossible for the ruling politicians, as almost the entire population benefited from it.

The current Finnish government has started to address this problem, but the recent rise in interest rates has made the situation more difficult by increasing state expenditures just as public sector spending has been reduced. At the same time, the country's labor unions have opposed all changes, and the private sector hasn't recovered as hoped after the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, according to Finland's Ministry of Finance, there now seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. According to its top official, "price increases have clearly slowed down. Interest rates are on the decline, and the ECB is likely to lower rates two more times this year, which the markets have already priced in. The decline in GDP appears to have genuinely stopped, and there are signs of a revival in the housing market."

The official also praises Finland's "excellent" cost competitiveness, meaning the ability to produce goods and services at competitive prices compared to other countries. Additionally, alongside Nokia and the forest products industry, "new beginnings" have emerged in sectors like clean energy, artificial intelligence, and chip technology.

When you add to all this that the country has a right-wing government, which can be expected to refrain from redistribution policies, it seems that Finland is also emerging from its decade-and-a-half-long economic downturn.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finns are backing the government making difficult decisions
Correct minister, ridiculous facts
The program of the new Finland´s Government is ready, and ministers are being selected