Estonia Needs Its Own Air Force

Finland’s Air Force’s operations outside the country’s borders are restricted — in peacetime — by national regulations according to which fighters do not — without a separate decision — fly in other states’ airspace. Now, however, Estonian politician Kalev Stoicescu has asked Finland to change its practices in this respect.

The background is that Estonia itself does not have a proper air force; the defence of its airspace is handled by fighters from other NATO countries stationed at the Ämari base. In the Baltic Sea area in particular, it may happen that Finnish fighters can react to Russian border violations more quickly than those departing from Ämari.

For Finland the problem is that we have a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. That gives us more than enough to monitor — and, if necessary, to intercept — without expanding the area under surveillance to the south of the Gulf of Finland.

Therefore I am of the opinion that the Estonians would be better advised to consider establishing their own fighter fleet rather than asking the Finns for help. Of course that would be expensive, and the size of Estonia’s economy does not allow for funding a very large fleet, and so would not enable them, in a real crisis, to fend off the Russian Air Force on their own.

On the other hand, an Estonian squadron would not have to operate alone; it would rather complement the support the country already receives from NATO. Through this, Estonia’s defence of its airspace against intruders would also be substantially improved compared with the present.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine led to some rather interesting perspectives, as Donald Trump called for an end to the war along the current front lines — and Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to accept the idea. According to the latter, “we must stop where we are — he is right, the President is right.”

At the same time, Trump announced that he was not ready to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which could be used to destroy Russian military and infrastructure targets deep inside the country. Not, at least, before he meets with Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Before the meeting, Zelenskyy stated that security guarantees are the most important issue for Ukraine. However, Finnish media, the BBC, USA Today, and CBS did not report on what the presidents discussed regarding those guarantees. According to Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, support for Ukraine remains strong and “includes military and economic assistance, security guarantees, a ceasefire, and a peace process.”

It therefore remains to be seen how Putin will respond in Hungary to a peace initiative that he could, if he wished, present to his people as some kind of victory. Yet compared with his previous statements, such an outcome would clearly be a failure — one that has already resulted in more than a million Russians being killed or disabled.

Thus, peace along the current front lines would be an obvious risk for Putin, since it is impossible to predict in advance which narrative — victory or failure — would ultimately prevail in the minds of Russians. And what might follow from that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

Are Coral Reefs Doomed Within the Next Few Years?

A recent science news report stated that, according to a study signed by 160 researchers, the destruction of coral reefs is now almost certainly irreversible. The report says that most coral reefs will die once global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

At present, the climate has warmed by 1.4 degrees, according to scientists, which means that the temperature leading to the irreversible collapse of reefs is expected to be reached within the next few years. When that happens, for example, the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica are likely to collapse.

And that’s not all — according to the lead author of the report, Tim Lenton, one of the tipping points involves the collapse of existing ocean currents, which would have catastrophic consequences. If this were to occur in the ocean circulation system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it would disrupt the global climate and, among other effects, cool the winters of Finland and the rest of Europe.

* * *

I wanted to highlight this topic because the report provides a clear prediction — one that will be fascinating, if admittedly frightening, to follow in the coming years. It’s especially intriguing because the timeframe mentioned is “in the next few years,” which to my ears sounds more like less than ten years rather than more. At the very least, it doesn’t imply waiting several decades, as shown by the chart published a couple of years ago by the University of Berkeley, which I’ve copied below.

So, I’ll try to remember to follow this issue in the coming years — and to report on it here in this blog, unless I become too senile before the coral reef catastrophe actually happens.

* * *

Before that, however, it’s worth recalling a study from last year which found that coral reef restoration can accelerate the recovery of coral cover and carbonate production so rapidly that the reefs’ net carbonate budgets resemble those of healthy reefs within just four years. And this occurs under the current climate, which is already 1.4 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

And that’s not all — this year another study was published showing that there are also coral reefs that are recovering. At least some can be found in the Chagos Archipelago, where coral cover on both the fore-reef and the lagoon increased by 59–67% after several years of bleaching.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this change of direction is only temporary — or whether it will prove to be permanent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuhoutuvatko koralliriutat lähivuosina?

English or Finnish — That’s the Question

I have been considering returning this blog to its original purpose — to publish here only English translations of the most significant entries from my Finnish-language blog, edited when necessary to take into account an international readership.

There are three reasons behind this consideration. The first is lack of time, as maintaining two blogs takes up a large part of my free time. The second is that I suspect most readers of the English-language blog are in fact Finns, who can therefore also read my Finnish posts. Thus, posting less frequently in English might allow me to write Finnish entries more often than I do now.

For this reason, I ask you — my dear readers — to indicate on the discussion forum below, in a single word, whether you prefer to read the entries in Finnish or in English. Based on your comments, I will make my final decision about the future of this blog.

Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?

Some Ukrainians have fled the war to other countries. As a result, there are also people in Finland who have escaped Russia’s invasion, and they have generally been well received. On the other hand, finding employment has been difficult: only about 30 percent of Ukrainians have jobs, while the rest depend on social security.

According to a recent survey, however, the majority of Ukrainians intend to stay in Finland even if the war raging in their homeland were to end. This group makes up about 70 percent of all Ukrainians in the country.

At the same time, Finland has tightened its immigration policy, so it remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians currently in the country once peace returns and the need for humanitarian protection ends. In a way, Finland does need a solid workforce in the long term due to its low birth rate, even though unemployment currently affects as much as ten percent of the national labor force.

It should also be noted that the native population’s attitude toward Ukrainians is significantly more positive than toward many other groups who have arrived on humanitarian grounds. Likewise, it is clear that their readiness to earn a living through work is on a completely different level compared to those coming from developing countries.

In that sense, it would be reasonable for Finland to consider its immigration policy also from the perspective of the receiving society and to favor the settlement of Ukrainians over more problematic groups of newcomers. However, such arrangements face an obstacle in the form of so-called non-discrimination requirements—raised almost certainly by the political left—which aim to prevent immigration policy from taking advantage of recognized differences between population groups.

It therefore remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians who have settled in Finland—and, along with that, whether Finns are capable of making sensible immigration policy or whether moral posturing will once again take precedence.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland to Tighten Citizenship Requirements Further
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
A Different Kind of Christmas

Finland and the U.S. to Launch Icebreaker Cooperation

President Alexander Stubb of Finland visits the White House today together with Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. There, he will sign a memorandum of understanding with President Donald Trump concerning cooperation on icebreaker technology.

This document lays the foundation for commercial agreements between the U.S. Coast Guard and Finnish companies. It is also the result of prior negotiations between the U.S. administration and Finnish shipbuilders.

The cooperation is based on the fact that Finnish expertise in icebreaker technology is unparalleled anywhere in the world — and that is why the Americans trust it.

Icebreakers are not ordinary ships; they represent a highly specialized technology mastered only within the Finnish “icebreaker ecosystem”, where the coordinated expertise of numerous companies comes together. In other words, the overall know-how is not the private property of any single company.

For this same reason, Finland’s core icebreaker expertise cannot simply be transferred abroad, even though the agreement includes an option for part of the shipbuilding work to be carried out in the United States. However, this would mainly involve the final outfitting of the icebreakers — work that does not significantly differ from any other type of ship construction.

In Finland, some concern has been expressed that these new deals might lead to the loss of icebreaker know-how from the country. For the reasons mentioned above, I do not share this concern. However, I do see great value in the fact that the construction of these vessels will also create jobs for American companies.

Such cooperation, if successful, could lead to a long-term partnership between Finnish and American companies — and thereby, in President Stubb’s words, “benefit both Finland and the United States.” After all, each icebreaker costs around two billion euros, so there’s a significant share for everyone involved.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes

According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine has carried out a drone strike more than 2,000 kilometers beyond its border. The target was an oil refinery in Tyumen, Russia, which was reportedly damaged in the attack.

Regardless of the extent of the damage, the incident is significant in that it demonstrates that Russian infrastructure is increasingly within Ukraine’s reach. Consequently, Russia’s war economy is becoming ever more vulnerable — just as Vladimir Putin turns 73.

For example, fuel shortages in many regions of Russia are already severe and are making civilian life difficult. One can only imagine how the situation will unfold in the coming months, with homes left unheated as temperatures drop to –20 or even –30 degrees Celsius.

For this reason, there now appears to be considerable potential in the air for an uprising to ignite. And this seems enough for Putin to be paying very close attention to his own security.

This is underlined by reports that even Vyacheslav Leontyev, the 87-year-old former publisher of Pravda, the leading newspaper of the Soviet Union, is said to have fallen from the window of his fifth-floor apartment in western Moscow. The man is believed to have been well informed about the secret wealth of Russia’s elite — undoubtedly including Putin himself — the existence of which is unlikely to provide much comfort to ordinary Russians facing the coming winter’s cold.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Two Recent Life-Threatening Crimes in Finland

A recent news report stated that a 15-year-old student at a Finnish school had stabbed another student of the same age. According to the police, the perpetrator is currently at large, but his identity is known.

No description of the attacker has been released in the news reports, so I looked into what kind of school the incident took place in. The school is located in Lahti, a city of about 120,000 residents roughly an hour’s drive from Helsinki.

According to an education website, the school serves not only degree-preparatory students but also lower secondary students in grades 7–9, students in flexible basic education, and those in preparatory education for immigrants. The school has a total of about 660 students and offers specialized instruction in sports and STEM subjects.

Salpausselkä Comprehensive School was founded in 1957, and an extensive renovation was completed in 2017. The facilities are modern and multipurpose. There are about 60 teachers, teaching assistants, and other staff members in total. The school engages in international cooperation with partner schools abroad and maintains broad partnerships with local companies.

The aforementioned degree-preparatory program is intended for learners who do not yet have a secondary qualification and who, for one reason or another, need preparatory training — in practice, this means immigrants or Finnish students who have dropped out of school.

It remains to be seen when the police will apprehend the attacker — and what information about them will eventually be made public.

* * *

The school stabbing in Lahti is not the only recent act of violence making headlines. Yesterday, in Helsinki, a 20-year-old young man reportedly attempted to shoot a 16-year-old boy he knew.

According to a police spokesperson, “extensive investigative measures have been carried out, through which we have been able to clarify further details about the course of events. Based on this information, I consider that the suspected act meets the criteria for attempted murder.”

It thus appears that Finland may be rapidly following what is often referred to as “the Swedish path” — marked by a sharp increase in violent crimes connected to the country’s demographic changes in recent decades, something Swedish authorities have been warning their Finnish counterparts about for years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Attitudes Toward Immigrants Are a Problem in Schools
678 Bomb Attacks in Six Months: Netherlands Faces Alarming Trend
Burning a Man Alive Led to Life Imprisonment

Finland’s Foreign Minister Explained Why the States That Have Recognized Palestine Are Well-Meaning Fools

Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians are set to begin in Cairo, Egypt. The starting points are promising, as a representative of the extremist group Hamas assures that the organization seeks to reach an agreement to end the war in Gaza.

However, right at the outset, the organization has demanded that Israel immediately cease all military operations in Gaza if it wants to reach an agreement — a stance that has hardly helped build trust in the terrorists. On the positive side, Hamas has also expressed its own willingness to stop fighting, provided Israel does the same.

In other words, the situation remains tense, and there is no certainty about the outcome. Therefore, the rest of the world should aim to help facilitate the formation of an agreement.

* * *

Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (National Coalition Party) has stated that she hopes a ceasefire can be implemented immediately, as the release of hostages has been awaited for nearly two years. This, she says, would hopefully also allow sufficient humanitarian aid to reach Gaza and help calm the situation across the region.

According to Valtonen, Finland’s position is that Hamas must be disarmed. In her words, “the point now is that disarmament simply must be achieved. We cannot accept any kind of terrorist organization at the helm of any territory — and especially not of a future state.”

She also emphasized that “we support the two-state model. That in itself means that the State of Palestine will be recognized. But this requires that the Palestinian administration be a civilian government committed to nonviolence and to ensuring security for Israel, neighboring countries, and its own people.”

In other words, it is not yet sensible to recognize the State of Palestine; instead, the promise of independence should be used as an incentive to achieve a positive outcome in the peace negotiations. Unfortunately, most of the world’s countries have already, in their folly, played that card.

Thus, their actions — the premature recognition of Palestine — can well be described as the work of well-meaning fools, which will hopefully not have too great an impact on the outcome of the negotiations. However, should that happen, it would be wise to learn from it when resolving future crises.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal
Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law

Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal

The terrorists of Hamas have accepted part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace proposal. First, they are ready to release their remaining hostages, and second, they agree to relinquish power in Gaza – though only in favor of an independent Palestinian leadership.

As a result, Israel has announced that it will scale back its operations in Gaza to a “minimum,” conducting only defensive missions in the area – something Trump himself encouraged them to do. Thus, with their statement, Hamas fighters have at least gained a brief respite.

At the same time, it is clear that Hamas has not committed to all parts of Trump’s peace plan. One particularly crucial element is the disarmament – or demilitarization – of this terrorist organization.

It remains to be seen how the situation in Gaza and the entire Holy Land will develop from here. In other words, will Hamas manage to evade the demands placed upon it – and if not, will hostilities with Israel resume immediately after the release of the hostages?

This also gives Hamas some room to maneuver; it might seek to delay the handover of hostages in order to reorganize and strengthen its military operations. And if that happens, one must ask: at what point will Israel and Trump lose their patience?

All in all, it would of course be best if Hamas accepted all the terms of the agreement. On the other hand, the most important thing for everyone – not least for ordinary Palestinians in Gaza – would be Hamas’s disarmament, which would in any case put an end to the fighting in the region.

However, I suspect that this is the last condition on Trump’s list that Hamas would ever agree to – if it agrees at all. And therefore, it remains to be seen whether this morning’s optimism will turn out to be merely an illusion, one that shatters as soon as we return to Gaza’s grim reality and the distorted worldview of the terrorists who sustain it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?

Finland detained a vessel named Eagle S, which had dragged its anchor across the seabed and damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. The investigation took some time, after which the evidence was submitted to a Finnish district court, i.e., the lowest judicial instance.

Instead of assessing the criminal liability of the act and delivering a verdict to those found guilty, the district court ruled that it had no jurisdiction to decide in such a criminal case. Therefore, the matter should be dealt with either in the courts of the crew’s home countries or in the courts of the flag state of the Eagle S. In other words, the case would fall under the jurisdiction of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India.

However, Professor Ulla Tapaninen, a maritime transport expert at Tallinn University of Technology, has noted that “district courts often prefer to move complex cases up to higher judicial levels.” For this reason, she argues it is reasonable that the Eagle S case would be escalated from the district court to the court of appeal, which is one step higher in the judicial hierarchy.

In other words, the Finnish professor at the Estonian university assumes that the legal proceedings will continue in Finland. This raises the question: if that happens, will the court of appeal consider itself competent—contrary to the district court’s conclusion—to convict the crew of the Eagle S?

And if that is the case, who will bear the costs? The Finnish taxpayer, who has already been burdened with bills amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros?

And what would happen after such a farce? Would the case then be transferred to the courts of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India—or would the legal consequences of the damage caused by the Eagle S to the submarine cables ultimately remain unaddressed?

And furthermore, if that is the case, does it mean that in the future the submarine cables running along the seabed of the Baltic Sea and other seas may be cut at will and without consequences?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Just Another Case of Multiculturality in Manchester, UK

A terrorist attack has been carried out at a synagogue in Manchester, UK. The suspected perpetrator was a bald man with a big black beard.

There is nothing particularly unusual about the case, since recent years have shown that as multiculturalism increases, the number of terrorist incidents has also risen throughout Europe. The only strange thing is that the majority of the native population in each country seems to accept the situation without much protest.

That is why it will be interesting to see what the future of an increasingly multicultural Europe will look like. At this stage, one can only hope for the best, but fear the worst. 

And vote in elections to ensure that Europe, despite everything, will remain European—that is, composed of democratic states that respect human rights, and where the violence caused by multiculturalism can somehow be rooted out. If it cannot be achieved by good means, then other measures must be used—measures that will suffice.

It seems this is also the way of thinking in Britain, where Reform UK has risen to become by far the most popular party. One can only hope that if—and when—it wins the next parliamentary elections, it will use the mandate it receives from the people effectively. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians
Multiple Stabbings Reported in Tampere, Finland
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point

Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine has sought to undermine Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” by bringing the war into Russians’ homes, namely by destroying infrastructure. As a result, there are occasional shortages of fuel for cars, and home heating does not always function.

The Ukrainians’ tactic seems sound in itself, but Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party), former Chief of Intelligence at the Finnish Defence Command and now a Member of the European Parliament, reminded of one problem. According to him, “in a dictatorship, the risk of going out into the streets is great, because if you are not shot, you will spend decades in a prison camp.”

For this reason, Russians can endure the kind of misery that would lead to massive riots in Western countries. The choice is easy, since—as Toveri put it—“the alternative is a bullet in the forehead.”

It remains to be seen what the winter will bring. In the best-case scenario, heating failures and cold homes will eventually lead to a popular uprising and the collapse of Putin’s regime—along with peace for Ukraine. In the worst case, Russians will direct their anger toward Ukraine, and the people will unite more firmly than ever behind Putin’s “special operation.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?