Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice

Climate change caused by humans is expected to be particularly rapid in the Arctic region. As a result, the northern sea ice is expected to melt, perhaps as early as the next decade.

These predictions are based on such complex climate models that even researchers cannot fully understand them, let alone ordinary tax-paying citizens. Therefore, it is extremely interesting to follow the statistics on ice area development published by the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

NSIDC publishes ice area statistics monthly. And now the statistics for June are available, from which I drew the picture below.

As seen in the figure, the ice area in June has varied over the years, but it is not possible to say that it has decreased any further since 2007. It remains to be seen when its development will return to the downward trajectory predicted by climate models—or if it will at all.

In addition to the Arctic ice area, the NSIDC publishes daily statistics on ice extent, which differs from area in a similar way that the surface area of a slice of Swiss cheese including the holes differs from its area without the holes. According to this statistic, the ice extent yesterday was the fourteenth largest for that date in its measurement history.

I have been following these statistics for a long time and have been puzzled by the fact that they are rarely reported in the media aimed at the general public. However, I am sure that many readers would find following the melting of the northern sea ice quite interesting.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January
Does Arctic sea ice melt as atmospheric greenhouse gases increase?

 

Finland and Western Europe: Effectively at War

In Finland, an interesting discussion has emerged about our current relationship with Russia. MEP and General Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party) claimed that Finland and other Western European countries are already effectively at war with Vladimir Putin's dictatorship.

He did not, of course, mean a war fought with firearms, but rather that Russia is directing all kinds of aggressive actions against Finland and other Western countries. According to Toveri, "Russia is extensively planning, preparing, and executing sabotage across Europe. For example, weapons depots have been blown up, assassinations carried out, cables cut, and there is ongoing information warfare and cyberattacks. Additionally, the West is threatened with nuclear weapons, the refugee weapon is used, GPS interference is conducted, and so on."

This was picked up by MP Pinja Perholehto (Social Democratic Party), who either pretended not to understand—or worse yet—genuinely did not grasp the matter. She therefore asked on social media, "If we are indeed at war, why don't the President and the Council of State declare a state of emergency under the Emergency Powers Act and enable authorities to act accordingly?"

In the ensuing discussion, Toveri stated that "Russia specifically aims to operate below the threshold of the Emergency Powers Act, making it as difficult as possible to counter their actions," and thus advised, "do not think of war in the old-fashioned way as only kinetic troop warfare. The Russians do not think so either."

Perholehto's comment demonstrated that Putin's Russia has achieved some level of success in its actions. Despite the fact that most of the public understands his actions and intentions, there is complete incomprehension—or at least a desire to score political points from the threat to our country—on the left side of the political spectrum.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Putin's useful idiots in Finland
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

A National Rally election victory does not mean that France will become like Finland under the Finns Party

The result of the first round of the French elections met expectations. This indicates that the residents' frustration with the current immigration policy and its consequences is now becoming a reality.

An example of these consequences was seen when an attack occurred at a wedding of Turkish background individuals in Thionville, France, where a group armed with assault rifles killed one and injured several people. The incident is reportedly linked to gang conflicts involved in drug trafficking.

If and when such events – and similar ones – occur repeatedly, it is understandable that people accustomed to European order are dissatisfied and thus desire the change offered by the National Rally.

* * *

A Finnish journalist outlined four consequences of the election results. The first, according to her, is the reduction of France's support for Ukraine. This would mean a small victory for Vladimir Putin's Russia and is starkly opposed to the strongly pro-Ukraine stance of Finland's immigration-critical Finns Party.

The second issue the journalist mentioned that can be expected to change in France is the populist economic policy of the National Rally, which threatens to drive the country into an even deeper debt crisis. This is also a significant difference from the Finns Party, which has pushed for strict economic policies in government, causing the political left in opposition to resort to populist outcries.

The third potential change highlighted by the Finnish journalist was France's refusal to pay its membership fee to the EU. This would obviously have a massive impact on the entire Union, potentially pushing it back towards being a pure trade alliance. This would fit well with Finns Party's immigration-critical and EU-critical stance.

Finally, the journalist mentioned that the EU would become more value-conservative. This would mean not only stricter immigration policies but also a more conservative approach to sexual deviations and abortions.

In this respect, the relationship between the immigration-critical parties in France and Finland is not straightforward. In Finland, practically everyone supports the right to abortion, but many immigration-critical individuals view the hype around sexual deviations negatively.

* * *

As my esteemed reader noticed, the message of this blog post is that although the immigration policies practiced across Europe have led to the emergence of large immigration-critical parties in both Finland and France – and many other countries – this does not mean that European politics is changing in all other respects.

This is particularly evident in these parties' relations with Russia and economic thinking, but also in many other aspects. Therefore, no hasty conclusions should be drawn from the first round of the French elections.

Additionally, it must be remembered that an unholy alliance is forming in France between Macron supporters and the left, which, if successful, could prevent the rise of the National Rally to power and thereby block the rise of the immigration-critical Gauls for another term.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The future of all Europe is at stake
Swedish-Somali Offspring, Penalties, and Our Country's Attractiveness Factors
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth