Russia has advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk region and may achieve a breakthrough there. However, former Finnish Defense Forces Commander and current Member of Parliament Jarmo Lindberg (National Coalition Party) reminded us that the front line is long and not immediately collapsing.
According to Lindberg, the Kursk region might become a burden for Ukraine as it ties down troops away from other areas of the front. Additionally, "North Korean fighters have reportedly joined the battles in the Kursk region."
Therefore, it remains to be seen what will happen in the war in Ukraine during the coming winter. However, it is important to note that it does not solely depend on the warring parties but also on what Western countries do to help the Ukrainians—or whether they do anything at all.
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The Finnish Officers’ Union conducted a survey among professional soldiers on the war in Ukraine. According to the results, 67% of respondents considered Finland's support sufficient, while 28% would even support increasing military aid. One respondent suggested giving Ukraine Finland's soon-to-be-retired F-18 Hornet jets—but this would require extensive maintenance costing tens of millions of euros, as the jets will be fully decommissioned in the coming years.
One of the survey respondents summarized most Finns' perception of the war, saying, "Europe is being defended in Ukraine. Finland is the only European country prepared for large-scale warfare. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the longer it delays Russia’s resurgence… Ukraine’s success against Russia is an existential issue for Finland’s security."
Many professional soldiers also emphasized that donations should not compromise Finland's own defense capabilities. One noted, "Finland has provided outsized assistance to Ukraine, considering we are a frontline country relative to Russia."
Furthermore, 91% of Finnish soldiers agreed, at least to some extent, that Ukraine should be allowed to use long-range Western weapons to target sites deep within Russia. They do not understand why Ukraine must fight by different rules due to political caution.
One respondent questioned, "Russia constantly commits war crimes by destroying civilian targets. Ukraine is not even allowed to strike military targets." Another remarked, "Russia uses foreign weapons against Ukraine in the same way. Russia cannot be countered with one hand tied behind Ukraine's back."
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These views should ideally be shared in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has opposed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Scholz also displayed an embarrassing lack of understanding of Finland’s post-World War II position.
Scholz has stated that "Ukraine should adopt a ‘neutral’ position, as Finland did for decades." My homeland Finland was indeed forced into official neutrality after World War II, but it retained a Western societal structure and prepared as best it could for a possible war against the Soviet Union.
The so-called friendship between Finland and the Soviet Union was a grand theater, which did not shy away from suppressing freedom of speech or smearing rivals in internal politics. This was obvious to me, even as a teenager.
Also, the falsehood of Finland’s neutrality was clear to me decades ago while doing military service in my 20s, during which it was evident that the skills we were learning were meant to counter a potential attack by the Eastern superpower. Never—not even once—did it occur to us that Western countries could pose a threat to Finland.
Unfortunately, starting in the mid-1950s, Finnish politicians rose to power who played the so-called "Moscow card" to exploit Finland’s vulnerable position for personal and party advantage in domestic politics. The most well-known was President Kekkonen, who remained in power for 25 years with Soviet support, only stepping down after becoming completely senile.
So I expect that Germans, too, will help Ukraine in its fight for independence. If they don’t, I consider them cowards. Furthermore, Chancellor Scholz himself should ensure that he understands what he’s talking about before making foolish statements.
Finally, it would be great if this text somehow ended up being read by as many Germans as possible.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine